Haaretz and Yediot Reports Say Netanyahu Had UAE Warning Before October 7, Reigniting Fight Ahead of Oct. 27 Vote

Since the last roundup on Israel's upcoming election and Gaza's devastation, one question has dominated Israeli campaign posters and debate stages: did Benjamin Netanyahu know the Hamas attack was coming.

According to a Haaretz investigation cited by TRT World, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar told a Palestinian intermediary weeks before October 7, 2023, that he was preparing "the mother of all surprises" using the Arabic word zilzal, meaning earthquake. Those reports, along with separate Yediot Ahronot reporting, say the message traveled through a Palestinian go-between, then Emirati channels, and reached the highest levels of the Israeli government. The reports say UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan decided in mid-September 2023 to pass the warning to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu reportedly convened a security meeting after getting word, according to the same reporting, but Israeli leadership made no serious decisions or preparations in response. Dania Koleilat Khatib, an expert on Arab-American relations, told TRT World that "everyone on the face of this planet informed them." The intermediary identified in the reports is Sufyan Abu Zaida, a former Palestinian Authority minister.

Those claims remain contested reporting, not a court finding or an official inquiry conclusion. Elliott Abrams, writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Israel's standard mechanism for settling exactly this kind of dispute, a formal national commission of inquiry, has been blocked by Netanyahu and his Likud party for three years. Abrams wrote that "facts emerge and stories are told, but it will be up to history to find a more widely accepted judgment." Without that commission, the warning story sits in the same place it has for months: debated in Israeli media, cited by Netanyahu's opponents, and disputed by his defenders, who according to the Associated Press's reporting carried by Breitbart argue Netanyahu was betrayed by the military and intelligence establishment rather than personally negligent.

The Oct. 27 vote and the numbers behind it

Israel votes on October 27, twenty days after this week's third anniversary of the attack. Axios reports most polls show Netanyahu's Likud at 20 to 22 Knesset seats, down from the 32 it won last election, with his full right-wing coalition polling at 50 to 54 seats, short of the 61 needed to govern. The Council on Foreign Relations noted no party is close to a majority, raising the possibility of a second round of elections if postelection coalition talks fail.

President Trump has not endorsed Netanyahu despite speculation he might, according to Axios, which also flagged that if Democrats retake one or both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterms the following week, a fight over the $3.8 billion in annual U.S. military assistance to Israel could follow.

A new political class born from that morning

The Media Line reports that October 7 has produced its own cohort of Knesset candidates. Amir Strugo, a reserve officer who mobilized himself to Sderot without orders, is running thirteenth on the B'Yachad slate led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Noam Tibon, who drove to rescue his family at Nahal Oz, is sixth on that same list. Michal Hirsch Negri, whose son Maj. Roee Nagri was killed fighting that day, is seventh. Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, who helped evacuate Nova festival survivors, now leads The Democrats after a 2024 merger of Labor and Meretz. Tamar Hermann of the Israel Democracy Institute told the Associated Press, as carried by Breitbart, "October 7 is kind of a framework for the entire political discussion that is going on. All of us are post-traumatic in a way."

The dissenting argument

Al Jazeera opinion writer Yoav Litvin argued the entire warning-focused debate is itself a dodge, writing that fixating on "did he know" lets Israeli society avoid scrutinizing whether the Hannibal Directive, Israel's protocol for preventing hostage-taking, caused Israeli deaths on October 7, and avoids questioning why Hamas negotiators Ismail Haniyeh and later a Doha negotiating delegation were killed during ceasefire talks. Litvin also noted Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant face International Criminal Court arrest warrants for crimes against humanity, which Israel has not accepted and continues to reject. No ICC trial has occurred, and Israel disputes the court's jurisdiction. That piece reflects one opinion writer's framing rather than an established finding, but it captures a real strand of criticism largely absent from Israel's own campaign coverage, which both Axios and the AP's reporting note remains centered on the warning story rather than on conduct during the war itself.

With the vote three weeks away and no national commission in sight, the unresolved question is whether the Knesset elected October 27 will finally authorize the formal inquiry Netanyahu has blocked since 2023, or whether, win or lose, that reckoning keeps getting pushed past yet another election.