Gold Up 4.5% and Silver Up 5.4% on the Week, While World Bank and JPMorgan Forecast Lower 2027 Prices

Gold and silver finished the week higher. Neither metal is anywhere near where it stood earlier this year.

Comex December gold futures rose $176, or 4.5%, to close at $4,074.9 an ounce. Silver gained $2.6, or 5.4%, to settle at $51.94. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, December gold gained ₹3,682, nearly 3%, to ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams. Silver rose ₹5,655, or 3.15%, to ₹1.84 lakh per kilogram.

Friday brought selling. Pranav Mer, senior vice president of commodity and currency research at JM Financial Services, said bullion futures came under pressure that day.

What moved prices this week

Mer said metals first slid on stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and better consumer sentiment, which lifted the dollar and Treasury yields.

Then came a mid-week rally. Mer tied it to the US midterm outcome, which he described as Democrats winning both the Senate and the House. That causal link is his reading, not a settled fact.

Analysts also pointed to bargain buying at lower levels and short-covering. Safe-haven demand picked up after a decline in AI, data-center and tech stocks, particularly in the US. A correction in industrial metals, especially copper, capped the gains.

Next week's calendar

Inflation prints are due from China, the US, Germany, Japan and India. Investors will also watch speeches by Federal Reserve officials and US employment data.

Mer said gold and silver momentum "remains down" heading into that data. Chinese indicators matter most for industrial metals.

The US-Iran conflict is the other wildcard. President Donald Trump confirmed fresh military strikes on Iran while saying Washington had made "a lot of progress" in negotiations with Tehran. Mer said investors will also follow Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

India's domestic commodities market will stay closed for the morning session on Tuesday, Nov. 10, for Diwali-Balipratipada.

Far below the peak, and forecasts to match

Silver's year has been wild. The metal rallied more than 130% between 2025 and early 2026 and briefly traded above $110 an ounce, pushing the gold-to-silver ratio below 45, according to The Bull. At $51 it was down 11% on the month and 35% over six months. The ratio has widened to about 78.

Gold has also pulled back from record highs set earlier this year. The World Bank said gold fell 5% in the third quarter, with selling continuing into October. It cited rising government bond yields, expectations of tighter monetary policy, a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's September rate increase.

In its October Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank forecast gold averaging $4,600 this year, then $4,250 in 2027 and $4,000 in 2028. For silver it projected $70 this year, $62 in 2027 and $58 in 2028. Friday's gold close sits below the bank's 2027 average. Silver sits well below it.

The bank still expects prices to stay more than three times their 2015-2019 averages. It said investment demand and central bank purchases made up roughly half of global gold demand in the first half of 2026, and that central bank buying has started to pick up again.

JPMorgan cut its 2027 average silver forecast to $63.90 from $85.80. It estimates solar-sector silver use could fall about 30%, roughly 60 million ounces of annual demand, as manufacturers use less silver per cell. Deutsche Bank expects spot silver to average around $70 by the second quarter of 2027. It also anticipates the physical supply deficits of 2024 to 2026 will move toward balance or a modest surplus.

Not everyone is forecasting a slide

The forecasts are far from unanimous, and many cover different things. An annual average is not the same as a target for a specific date.

A Reuters poll published Oct. 27 put the 2027 median gold average at $4,650 and silver at $66.75. UBS Chief Investment Office, in an Oct. 20 outlook, targets $5,400 gold by September 2027. WisdomTree's models project $4,789 gold and $70.55 silver by the third quarter of 2027. State Street's November monitor lists a bearish 12-month gold scenario of $3,750 to $4,500 alongside its higher targets.

Indian brokers lean bullish. Vedika Narvekar of Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers projects gold at ₹1.75 lakh per 10 grams and silver at ₹2.60 lakh per kg by November 2027. NS Ramaswamy of Ventura sees gold at ₹1.75 lakh and silver at ₹2.50 lakh over the same period. Both ranges are well above the December MCX gold settlement of ₹1.42 lakh and silver at ₹1.84 lakh.

The bearish and bullish camps disagree on the drivers. The World Bank and JPMorgan point to tighter policy, a firmer dollar and falling industrial demand for silver. UBS and the Indian brokers expect investment demand and central bank buying to carry prices higher.

The inflation prints from the US, China, Germany, Japan and India will show which side gets the early evidence. They arrive alongside Fed commentary and the Iran talks.

The Federal Reserve's next move on rates is the open question the data will test.