Gasoline Has Averaged $3.472 Under Trump, Edging Past Biden's $3.471, AAA Data Show

Since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began Feb. 28, the national average for regular gasoline has climbed from about $2.98 to $4.29 a gallon as of Monday, Oct. 26, and that run has tipped a long-running political comparison. AAA data show gasoline has averaged $3.472 a gallon since Trump returned to office in January 2025. The Biden-era average was $3.471.

The gap is less than one cent. It is also a reversal for a candidate who pledged in 2024 to bring gas below $2.

How the numbers got here

Gas was under $3 when 2026 began. It peaked at $4.56 in May, according to AAA figures, and is up roughly 43% since the war started. AAA put the average at about $3.05 a year ago. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan, using his own tracking, put Monday's average at $4.24, down 22 cents from a month ago but $1.24 above last year.

Diesel is worse. It averaged $6.35 a gallon Monday, after hitting a record $6.53 in September.

Biden still holds the single-day record. Gas reached $5.02 in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and prices fell faster afterward than they have this year. This year has already produced more days above $4 nationally than any single year of the Biden administration, according to CNN's analysis of AAA data.

De Haan, who has tracked pump prices for years, said of the milestone: "It's pretty astonishing. I don't think anyone would have predicted this 10 months ago."

What is driving prices

The war has disrupted crude shipments and refining capacity. Susan Bell, senior vice president for downstream at Rystad Energy, said the world is short roughly 400,000 barrels a day of gasoline that Middle Eastern producers normally export.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has partly recovered, but moving oil costs far more. CNN reported that chartering a tanker for a day cost about $65,000 in 2025 and reached $1.6 million earlier this month.

The White House rejects the idea that Trump's policies are to blame. Spokesperson Taylor Rogers said "today's high prices reflect preexisting issues: years of Democrat policies that shuttered U.S. refineries, compounded by the destruction of refineries in the Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict he inherited." She also said more oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf now than before the conflict began, crediting the U.S. military.

Trump has argued the higher costs are justified by the goal of keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. He has also said prices will fall after the war ends and after the midterms.

One caveat on the comparison itself: the Trump figure covers roughly 21 months, while the Biden figure covers four years that included the 2022 spike. A few more weeks of $4-plus gas will widen the gap.

The administration's response

The White House is releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, temporarily waiving the Jones Act and allowing red-dyed diesel on highways. The EPA issued an emergency waiver in August so winter-grade gasoline could go on sale Sept. 1. The administration has also bought millions of barrels of Russian diesel and announced an $8 billion aid package for farmers.

Last week it invoked wartime authorities to boost U.S. fuel output, and the Energy Department said it has set aside $150 million to invest in refineries.

Refiners are not promising quick results. Valero CEO Lane Riggs said restarting shuttered refineries takes time. COO Gary Simmons called Russian diesel shipments to the U.S. an insignificant volume.

Politics and prices

The last consumer price report before Election Day showed inflation at 3.7% over 12 months. Inflation had been trending down until Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025, and the Iran war added pressure this year, according to the Associated Press's review of the data.

The Cook Political Report rates Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska as toss-ups. Trump won each state by double digits in 2024.

What comes next

De Haan expects gasoline to stay above $4 a gallon and diesel above $6 through Election Day on Nov. 3, despite the administration's measures. Bloomberg reported that the conflict shows no sign of easing. Trump's own timeline ties lower prices to the war ending, and no end date has been announced.