European Gas Tops €97 per Megawatt-Hour, Highest Since 2022, With Storage Near 75%

Since the Middle East conflict broke out in February, European wholesale gas has more than tripled. On Monday, Oct. 26, the benchmark cleared €97 per megawatt-hour, its highest since late 2022, after rising as much as 3.5% in morning trading.

The move extends a run. Prices climbed more than 6% last week, a fourth straight weekly gain, and stood near €93 on Friday. They were at €86 on Oct. 13.

Storage is the soft spot

European gas storage was 74.62% full as of Oct. 22, the lowest level for this point in the season since records began in 2009. The Guardian puts the seasonal average closer to 80%. Analysts cited by BigGo Finance use a longer baseline: a roughly 90% average for the same period from 2011 to 2025, and 98% at the same point in 2023.

Some EU countries have already begun drawing on stored gas as temperatures fall. Forecasts for colder weather in northwestern Europe add to heating demand.

The Guardian attributes the thin reserves to a slowdown in Qatari exports and heavy summer consumption for cooling.

Gulf LNG and the Iran question

LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, around a fifth of global supply before the conflict, are running about 80% below year-earlier levels. Europe and Asia, the world's two largest LNG importers, are competing for the cargoes that remain. North Asian LNG prices are nearly three times their pre-conflict levels.

Traders are also pricing in political risk. Reports say the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections. Those reports helped push Brent crude as high as $117 a barrel on Friday. Brent fell about 2% on Monday but remains above $114.

No strike has been ordered. Prices are moving on the possibility.

The case that the market is overreacting

Not everyone thinks the supply hole is as deep as the price implies. A Financial Times analysis, as summarized by BigGo Finance, found global LNG supply this summer was only about 4% lower than a year earlier. That is not enough, the analysis says, to explain a doubling of European gas prices.

Other producers have offset roughly three-quarters of the supply lost from Qatar and the UAE, the same summary says. Together those two countries supplied about 20% of global LNG in 2025, but only about 3% of total global gas, which is dominated by pipelines.

The European Commission holds a relatively optimistic view of this winter's supply, according to the Financial Times analysis. The analysts also point to a structural decline in European gas demand and to storage measured in days of cover that is close to the historical average.

Longer-dated prices tell a similar story. The 2029 forward contract has fallen back to about €30 per megawatt-hour. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030 the increase in global LNG exports could cover 88% of Europe's annual consumption.

The argument has limits. Those figures describe averages and medium-term supply. They do not change how little buffer Europe has if a cold snap or a new disruption hits in the next few months.

Britain takes the hardest hit

The UK's month-ahead gas contract rose 4% on Monday to 240p a therm, its highest since December 2022, when prices were surging after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. British energy regulators have said the country is expected to pay some of the highest energy costs in Europe this winter because it depends on imports. The UK has some of the smallest gas stores on the continent after decades of relying on North Sea output.

The Office for National Statistics reports the UK paid a record £4bn on power imports in the year to August, half of it for electricity from France. The country also made near-record payments over the past year to fire up gas plants, while wind and solar farms were paid to switch off because of grid bottlenecks.

British household bills are predicted to rise 16% in January, to the equivalent of about £2,000 for a typical annual dual-fuel bill.

EU governments are separately trying to cut reliance on Russian gas, diversify suppliers and import more LNG, according to SANA. That puts them in the same bidding contest for cargoes.

European equities edged up Monday on the softer oil price. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.3% in early trading and the FTSE 100 rose 0.4%.

The next test is weather and weekly storage data. If drawdowns continue while Gulf LNG stays 80% below last year, the gap between storage and the seasonal norm will widen heading into November. Any Iran decision after the midterms would land on that thin cushion.