Eight Days Before Midterms, DOJ Election Fights Pile Up and White House Rules Out Iran Strikes Until After Nov. 3

Eight days before the Nov. 3 midterms, two fights are running in parallel: who controls how the votes get counted, and when the next round of U.S. military action against Iran might come.

The Justice Department versus the states

The Justice Department has sued 30 states for their unredacted voter lists, which contain sensitive personal data. The Guardian reported that courts have ruled in a number of those cases and the department has lost 26 of them.

The department also sued California over its refusal to remove about 20,000 voters the DOJ flagged as potential noncitizens. Whether those voters are actually ineligible is a question for the courts, and the DOJ's flag is an allegation, not a finding.

Accurate voter rolls are a mainstream concern, and so is making sure noncitizens do not vote. The record so far is a DOJ that keeps filing and keeps losing on the voter-list suits.

The department announced plans this summer to deploy 1,000 poll monitors. In 2022 it deployed 289, according to CBS News. The NAACP sued on Oct. 4 seeking details on how the monitors will be used.

Harmeet Dhillon, who heads the DOJ's civil rights division, wrote to state election officials this summer threatening prosecutions if they did not cooperate adequately in the hunt for voting fraud.

The newest front is Alaska. The New York Times reported that Trump moved last week to pre-emptively challenge certification of the state's Senate race if the Republican candidate narrowly loses. Democracy Docket reported the DOJ's challenge applies if anyone other than incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan wins.

There is no Alaska result yet. Challenging the certification of an election that has not happened is a first-order political escalation, and the administration owes voters of both parties an explanation of what evidence it would rely on.

States organize in response

Democratic officials are preparing for exactly that. Since early this year, 24 Democratic attorneys general have coordinated with about a dozen Democratic secretaries of state and civic groups through weekly Zoom calls and in-person tabletop exercises, the Guardian reported. The effort is led by the Progressive State Leaders Committee, the policy arm of the Democratic Attorneys General Association.

Washington Attorney General Nick Brown said the DOJ and the Trump administration are "the biggest adversary to a smooth election." He added: "Trump lies about the election on a regular basis. Truth is not a goal of his."

Trump has repeatedly claimed that U.S. elections are rigged, including the 2020 contest. The Democratic officials call those claims false. The coordination is also, by design, a partisan operation run by the party's own legal network.

What the voters say

A YouGov poll for the advocacy group "If you can keep it," conducted Oct. 9-20 among 806 voters, found 56% believe Trump wants to extend his influence over state election rules to "ensure Republicans win elections, regardless of whether they are free and fair." That wording is pointed, and the sample is small.

Other findings were less partisan. 75% of voters, including 62% of Republicans, oppose officials seizing ballots, voting machines or election records before counting and certification are complete. 70% of voters, including 56% of Republicans, oppose criminal investigations of local officials aimed at pressuring them to change election rules.

Two-thirds of voters said they are confident the midterms will be counted correctly: 62% of Republicans and 74% of Democrats. Republicans split from the overall electorate on one item. Only 24% of them oppose armed federal officials, including ICE agents, near polling places, compared with 56% of all voters.

Iran after the vote

Trump told reporters Thursday, Oct. 22: "We've knocked the hell out of them. And we may do it a little bit further." On whether the war could hurt Republicans in November, he said: "There's a price to pay, which I knew immediately when I did it. But we can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."

On negotiations, he first said "a little bit," then: "I think we're not negotiating."

The New York Times reported that U.S. and Israeli planners have drawn up a potentially three-day offensive aimed at Iran's nuclear sites, missile and drone stockpiles and energy infrastructure. ABC News, citing two Israeli sources, reported that Israeli officials expect a joint offensive soon after the midterms. One of them said: "Hunting season is open as soon as the elections end." One Israeli source said War Secretary Pete Hegseth's unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, Oct. 19, included discussion of renewed strikes. That is a single anonymous account.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly was categorical on timing: "The United States will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections." She said nothing about afterward. Hegseth said Tuesday that U.S. forces could resume operations if Trump gives the order.

The campaign trail

Trump is campaigning hard in tight races. CNN reported that he has intensified personal attacks on Democratic candidates while Republicans worry about an enthusiasm gap.

Elon Musk posted that Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico "would vote to take away your kids and transition them." Talarico has not been quoted in the clip Musk posted as supporting any such legislation. In it he tells transgender youth, "you are loved beyond measure."

Talarico's Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, called him "a democratic socialist, just like AOC and just like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani."

In Georgia, GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson was expected to attend Trump's Saturday, Oct. 24 rally after first planning to appear only with Gov. Brian Kemp. His campaign had described skipping Trump as a "force multiplier."

Polls open on Nov. 3. The NAACP's suit over the 1,000 monitors is pending, and the Alaska challenge is on the table. If the Iran reporting holds, the next decision on military action comes after that.