Lula Leads Early Brazil Runoff Count 51.16% to 48.84% as Court-Ordered Voting Extension Invites Legal Challenges

Since Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended polling in Brazil's presidential runoff by two hours on Sunday, Oct. 25, the vote count has resumed and the first returns are in. With just over 5% of tallies reported, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro with about 51.16% to 48.84%.

That is a sliver of the count. Both candidates need more than 50% to win, and polls going in showed a neck-and-neck race.

Results are expected to build through the evening, with the final picture due between roughly 10:30 and 11 p.m. Brasília time, according to the schedule outlined for the count.

How the pause played out

Zanin's order came three minutes before the 5 p.m. Brasília cutoff. It reached some polling stations several minutes after they had already shut. The electoral court, the TSE, then paused the count for the two-hour window.

In a follow-up ruling, Zanin said stations that had already closed would stay closed, and their votes could be tallied. Stations still open could keep taking voters until 7 p.m.

Both campaigns had asked for more time. Lula's team cited disrupted bus service in nine states, including São Paulo and Salvador. Bolsonaro's team cited heavy rain in southern Brazil, where he is favored.

In Salvador, a state electoral judge ordered the arrest of Pablo Souza, the city's mobility secretary, after at least 75 public buses were kept from leaving municipal garages on Sunday.

Legal fights already forming

Lula's camp says it is looking at legal action over what it calls "interference in the electoral process," according to Edhinho Silva, chairman of the Workers' Party. Bolsonaro's campaign had not commented when the count resumed.

Bolsonaro ally Nikolas Ferreira called the decision an attempt to contest Bolsonaro's likely win. He noted that Zanin was Lula's lawyer before joining the court.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, the senator's brother, questioned on his YouTube channel why the Supreme Court had ruled in a process overseen by the electoral court. "It's hard to imagine what the legal basis for this could possibly be," he said. "It doesn't inspire credibility."

Two legal experts told Reuters the extension and the transit allegations could draw challenges. "Depending on the election result, there is a possibility that the losing side might attempt to contest the outcome, arguing that many people were unable to vote even with the extended deadline," said Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in São Paulo.

The extension followed requests from both sides, and Zanin is the justice who issued it. The court has not addressed the objections raised by Ferreira and Eduardo Bolsonaro.

What the race looks like

Bolsonaro won the first round earlier this month by more than 2.2 million votes. More than 33 million of nearly 160 million registered voters did not turn out, even though voting is compulsory. The Guardian reported that abstention hit a record in the first round and disproportionately affects Lula's voters.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. The senator has promised to pardon his father. He has also acknowledged accepting about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life, and he is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in that case.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He has faced pressure over the cost of living and security. He previously spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled.

International stakes

A Bolsonaro win would add Brazil to a run of victories this year by Trump-friendly candidates in Chile, Peru and Colombia. A Lula win would leave Brazil and Mexico with left-of-center governments.

The U.S. role has been contested throughout the campaign. Brazil denied visas in July to two State Department officials, with a Brazilian official saying the government suspected the visit was meant to influence the election. The State Department said the officials had planned routine meetings on election integrity, religious freedom and freedom of expression.

The winner takes office in January. The immediate question is whether the margin, once the count is complete, is wide enough to head off the court challenges both camps are already discussing.