Cyclone Murasu Expected to Hit Andhra Pradesh Overnight as 2,000 Evacuated and 30,000 Targeted

Since Cyclone Arnab came ashore in Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday, Oct. 28, the same coastline has had less than a week to recover before a second storm arrives. Cyclone Murasu is forecast to make landfall tonight, Monday, Nov. 2, into early Tuesday.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects Murasu to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur, near the town of Ongole, from 11:30pm to 4am local time. That is 6pm to 10:30pm GMT on Monday. The IMD says it will be a severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 100 to 110 km/h (60 to 70 mph) and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph). As of Monday morning it was moving north-west at about 20 km/h.

Evacuations under way

"Around 2,000 people have been evacuated, and the process is continuing. We are planning to evacuate some 30,000 people," Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, told Reuters on Monday.

That means roughly one in fifteen of the planned evacuees had been moved as of Monday. Authorities have ordered residents of low-lying coastal areas to leave.

Jain said six National Disaster Response Force teams and seven State Disaster Response Force teams are already deployed. Three of the national teams came from neighbouring Tamil Nadu.

In Nellore district, Collector Himanshu Shukla told fishermen not to go to sea. He ordered coastal officials to stay at their posts.

Power grid is the main worry

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu told officials to prepare. He said estimates suggest 6,000 to 8,000 electrical poles could be damaged, which he called a "severe threat to power supply."

Deputy Chief Minister Pawan Kalyan wrote on X that the storm is set to have a severe impact on Nellore, Prakasam, Bapatla and Krishna districts.

Schools are closed in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. Rain is expected to continue over parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and Chhattisgarh until Wednesday, even as the storm weakens, according to ETV Bharat. The IMD expects Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to feel the brunt of it.

Arnab's damage is still being counted

Murasu is forecast to be less intense than Arnab. Arnab's toll is still rising, particularly in Odisha.

Odisha officials said the death toll from Arnab and the floods that followed rose to six on Sunday, after two bodies were recovered from the village of Gidipabali. The village sits on the border of Ganjam and Kandhamal districts and had about 26 residents. It was flattened by mud and debris that came down the hills after heavy rain. Thirteen people escaped and are in a relief centre. Ten others are missing.

Odisha Special Relief Commissioner Rajesh P. Patil said at least 10 landslides were reported during Arnab. He said the cyclone and floods affected 118,000 people, damaged 1,672 houses and hit 75,388 hectares of crops.

Reuters put the storm's death toll at six, with dozens of homes and crops destroyed. The Independent's account of Arnab's impact in Andhra Pradesh itself cites five deaths there. Figures differ by account, and the counting is not finished with people still missing.

Odisha expects rain to begin Monday, intensify Tuesday and continue through Wednesday under Murasu's influence, according to the state's meteorological centre. The government has told people to leave low-lying and hilly areas. Schools and colleges in some southern districts are shut until Tuesday.

Saturated hillsides in Odisha are the obvious risk. Those slopes are the same ones that already produced at least 10 landslides last week.

What to watch overnight

Murasu has not made landfall yet. Everything above about its impact is a forecast, not an outcome.

The measurable test comes tonight and into early Tuesday. Andhra Pradesh set a target of 30,000 evacuees, and the landfall window opens at 11:30pm. Whether the state reaches that number in time, and how many of the 6,000 to 8,000 poles Naidu warned about actually come down, will show how well the response held up.

Odisha, meanwhile, still has ten people missing from Arnab and a fresh round of rain heading its way.