The Crisis Just Got Much Worse

We already covered the grid collapse and the Raúl Castro indictment. Here's what's happened since: Cuba has run out of oil entirely.

NOT running low. NOT managing shortages. Out. Zero.

Jorge Piñon — energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin and former president of Amoco Oil Latin America — told NPR on May 19 that the crisis has now spread far beyond electricity. "What used to be an issue or a challenge for the electric power sector, now is a big issue and challenge for the whole economy of the island," Piñon said.

Diesel for farm tractors. Diesel for delivery trucks. Cooking fuel for homes. All of it gone.

How Cuba Got Here — The Numbers

According to Cuba Headlines, Cuba produces roughly 40,000 barrels of oil per day but needs 110,000 to function. That gap used to be filled by two external suppliers:

• Venezuela supplied 60,000 barrels daily — until shipments collapsed amid Venezuela's own economic deterioration and the breakdown of the Maduro-Cuba relationship under intensifying U.S. sanctions pressure.
• Mexico supplied roughly 17,200 barrels daily — until February 2026, when it cut off Cuba under pressure from Trump's Executive Order 14380, signed January 29, 2026.

For the first time in a decade, Cuba's oil imports hit zero in January 2026.

The electrical grid reflects that math. On March 14, the deficit hit 2,040 megawatts — the system was providing 1,000 MW against demand exceeding 3,000 MW. Nine out of 16 thermoelectric plants are offline due to obsolescence and lack of maintenance. Between October 2024 and March 2026, Cuba experienced at least six total nationwide blackouts. The one on March 16 lasted 29.5 hours and hit 62% of the country.

Díaz-Canel's Response: Go Find Some Wood

Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel's answer to all this? He told citizens to cook with charcoal and firewood.

Not once. Twice — almost word-for-word — in May 2025 and again during a March 2026 visit to East Havana, per Cuba Headlines. There has been zero progress. The government has no solution. It is asking 11 million people to cook like it's 1820.

What Everyday Life Actually Looks Like

NBC News reported from Havana on May 23, 2026, with specific Cubans on record.

Lisbet Reyes, an audiovisual producer in Havana, started cooking with charcoal in December or January when blackouts hit the capital hard. "I will never get used to cooking with charcoal," she told NBC News.

Guillermo Sánchez, a gym owner, spent nearly $5,000 on solar panels — a sum completely out of reach for the average Cuban, who struggles to afford food. Sánchez can afford it because he's a business owner. Most Cubans have no such option.

Piñon told NPR that people are getting stranded between cities — traveling from Santiago to Havana and unable to get back, stuck for weeks, because there's no fuel for transportation. Refrigerators don't work, so food spoils. Summer heat is arriving with no fans, no air conditioning.

"We're talking about an economy that has shut down both electrically and for fuel," Piñon said.

The Economic Collapse Behind the Blackouts

Most mainstream coverage frames this as a humanitarian or political story. The economic dimensions are severe and documented.

The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a 7.2% contraction in Cuba's GDP for 2026, according to Cuba Headlines. Cuba's economy already shrank 5% in 2025 — the third straight year of decline, adding up to a cumulative 15%+ drop since 2020. In 2025, Cuba and Haiti were the only countries in Latin America with negative growth.

Cuba is in the same category as Haiti.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets like NYT and NBC News keep threading in the phrase "U.S. oil blockade" as framing — implying the U.S. is somehow the primary cause of Cubans cooking over charcoal fires.

Yes, Trump's Executive Order 14380 cut off Mexico's deliveries. Venezuela stopped shipments amid its own crisis and the collapse of the relationship with Havana under U.S. pressure. But Cuba's grid was already failing before U.S. pressure intensified, because nine of its sixteen power plants are broken from decades of regime mismanagement and neglect. The Cuban government has had 65 years to build a functional energy infrastructure. It didn't.

U.S. sanctions accelerated the crisis AND the Cuban regime's incompetence and authoritarian economics built the conditions for it. Calling it solely a "U.S. blockade" story overlooks Díaz-Canel's track record. Ignoring that Trump's policy deliberately weaponizes Cuban suffering as leverage misses part of the picture.

What This Means for Regular People

Eleven million Cubans are heading into summer with no reliable electricity, no cooking fuel, rotting food, no transportation, and a government whose official advice is to burn wood.

The Economist Intelligence Unit says the economy contracts 7.2% this year alone — on top of 15% already lost.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba recently, per NPR. The Castro indictment is public. U.S. pressure is intensifying deliberately.

Something is going to give. The only question is what breaks first — the regime or the people.