Since the Ebola outbreak has been the dominant story out of the DRC — where copper mines like Kamoa-Kakula are located — the commodity markets have been absorbing a second layer of bad news: the Strait of Hormuz has remained largely closed in early June 2026, and the copper market is swinging between record-high ambitions and war-driven demand anxiety.

Where Copper Stands Right Now

Copper on the London Metal Exchange traded around $13,832 per ton as of Tuesday, according to ZeroHedge's reporting on Goldman and HSBC analyst notes. That's close to — but below — the mid-May all-time high of $14,153 per ton. The metal then pulled back, with Bloomberg's headline flagging a decline from its highest level since February, though Bloomberg's full article remains paywalled.

For context, the economies.com data from late April showed copper at roughly $13,290 — meaning the metal climbed nearly $550 per ton over roughly five weeks before losing some steam.

Goldman Sachs Raises the Bar

Goldman Sachs analyst Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core problem is supply, not demand. Her team cut the 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350,000 metric tons — about 1.5% of total global supply. Two mines account for most of that cut: Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, neither of which is expected to return to full capacity until 2028.

Goldman simultaneously raised its end-2026 LME copper forecast to $13,735 per ton and its average 2027 forecast to $13,800, up sharply from prior estimates of $12,465 and $12,150 respectively.

Waltham also flagged that US copper imports in the first half of 2026 exceeded Goldman's previous forecast, which tightened the non-US global market. Goldman now expects US inventory to build by 900,000 metric tons in 2026, up from a prior forecast of 550,000 metric tons — driven largely by stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs.

HSBC's Warning: 'Super-Squeeze'

HSBC analysts went further in their client note, writing that metal prices are in "an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand." They specifically flagged the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a key risk, warning of a commodity "super-squeeze" if the chokepoint stays shut.

The Strait of Hormuz isn't just an oil story. Sulfuric acid — a critical input for copper processing — moves through those shipping lanes. Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, noted in late April that "the scale of the disruption is increasing day by day" even as direct military escalation fears had temporarily cooled.

Three Scenarios Goldman Lays Out

Goldman's Waltham mapped three price scenarios. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed longer, the demand hit from slower economic growth is largely offset by reduced copper supply — net effect on the global copper balance is limited. The deciding factor is whether tariff threats materialize and how fast AI infrastructure and grid-upgrade demand absorbs available supply.

War disrupts supply and demand simultaneously. Which force wins depends on duration and severity.

What the Media Is Missing

Most coverage is treating copper's pullback as a "war fears" story and stopping there. The structural supply deficit Goldman and HSBC are flagging predates the Iran conflict. Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula were already underperforming before the Hormuz situation escalated. The DRC instability — which has been front-page news for other reasons — isn't helping mine output either.

Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group predicted a potential surplus in refined copper for 2026 — which directly contradicts Goldman and HSBC's bullish call. Someone is going to be wrong. The ICSG's surplus call assumes supply recovery that Goldman just said won't happen on schedule.

The mainstream financial press is picking whichever forecast fits the day's price movement and calling it a narrative.

What This Means for Regular People

Copper prices don't stay in the commodities section. They move into home construction costs, electric vehicle prices, power grid upgrades, and appliance prices. Goldman's new price target of $13,735 by year-end — if it hits — means elevated inflation in everything that plugs in or gets built.

The Hormuz blockade is the wild card nobody has a clean answer on. Trump said in late April he's "not in a hurry" to reach a deal with Iran. That posture may be negotiating tactics or it may be policy. Either way, every week the strait stays blocked is another week the squeeze tightens.

With Kamoa-Kakula — one of the world's largest copper mines — sitting in the DRC while that country is simultaneously managing an Ebola outbreak and political instability, the supply story only gets more complicated from here.