The Numbers Got Worse. Again.

When we last covered this story, 15 major cities were posting double-digit declines in home prices. That was the headline. Here's the update: the condo market specifically has now blown past that, with 68 major markets recording drops of 7% to 33% from their respective peaks, according to Wolf Richter at Wolf Street.

The new data runs through April 2025. The prior Wolf Street report covered through March. One month later, the picture darkened considerably.

The Top of the Wreckage List

The worst of the worst, per Wolf Street's April data:

• Cape Coral, FL: -33% from its 2022 peak
• Oakland, CA: -31% from its 2022 peak
• St. Petersburg, FL: -28% from its 2022 peak
• Austin, TX: -27% from its 2022 peak
• Fort Myers, FL: -26% from its 2023 peak
• Sarasota County, FL: -24% from its 2022 peak

That's six major markets where condo owners have lost roughly a quarter of their investment — or more. In just two to three years.

Compare that to the March data: the worst on Wolf Street's list then was Oakland at -31%, Austin at -26%, and St. Pete at -28%. Cape Coral wasn't even tracked separately — it was lumped into Lee County at -23%. Now Cape Coral stands alone at the top at -33%. The declines are accelerating, not stabilizing.

This Isn't Florida's Problem Anymore

The mainstream narrative wants to file this under "Florida overdevelopment" and move on. That's lazy and wrong.

Oakland is down 31%. Seattle is down 15%. San Mateo County — Silicon Valley — is down 15%. Reno is down 15%. Denver is down 17%. Queens, NY is down 14%. San Francisco is down 12%.

This is coast to coast. Sun Belt to tech corridor. The condo bubble was a national phenomenon, and the bust is following it everywhere.

Wolf Richter also flags 44 additional markets where condos have dropped 7% to 14% from their peaks but didn't make the steeper-decline cutoff. Add them together and you have nearly 70 major U.S. markets with measurable condo price declines. The correction spans every region and major urban center.

Some Markets Are Back to 2005 Prices

In several of these markets, condo prices have dropped below their Housing Bubble 1 peaks from 2006 and 2007 and are sitting at levels not seen since roughly 2005, according to Wolf Street. Oakland is specifically called out as a market that has returned to 20-year-ago price levels.

Someone who bought a condo in Oakland in 2022 at peak prices has lost 31% of their value. Their condo is now worth what it was worth in 2005. Twenty years of nominal appreciation — erased.

The Small Markets Are Even Uglier

The major market data is alarming enough. But Wolf Street's March data included a buried detail worth attention: Killeen, TX — population roughly 160,000 — saw condo prices collapse 51% over three years through March, including a 20% year-over-year drop. That city isn't big enough to make the formal list. Which means there are likely dozens of smaller markets with similar or worse damage that nobody is tracking publicly.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

Most mainstream financial coverage is still leading with the national median home price, which remains elevated due to single-family home inventory shortages in certain markets. That number obscures what's happening underneath.

Condos and co-ops represent the majority of home sales in dense markets like Manhattan and San Francisco. Treating them as a niche product misses the scale of exposure here — particularly for investors, retirees on fixed incomes, and first-time buyers who bought in at 2021-2022 peak prices because condos were the "affordable" entry point into homeownership.

Those buyers are now underwater. And rising HOA fees, post-Surfside condo inspection requirements in Florida, and insurance cost explosions are making the monthly carrying costs worse even as prices fall. Wolf Street has documented this dynamic extensively. The major financial press has largely ignored it.

The Bubble Math Is Brutal

Wolf Richter's data shows these markets didn't just go up a little and come back down. In many cities, condo prices surged 50%, 60%, even 70% in just the two years from mid-2020 to mid-2022. Over the full decade to peak, prices in these markets rose 180% to 350%.

That kind of vertical move doesn't unwind in a straight line and stop at a tidy number. Bubbles overcorrect. More pain is likely coming.

What This Means for Real People

If you own a condo in Florida, Texas, Colorado, or coastal California and bought anywhere near the 2021-2024 peak, you are likely underwater or close to it. Your HOA fees are probably higher than when you bought. Your insurance bill is almost certainly higher. And the exit — selling — gets harder the more prices fall, because buyers know the trend.

If you're a first-time buyer looking at condos as the "affordable" option: the price drops are real, but factor in the full carrying cost picture before signing anything.

And if you're a policymaker or a Fed official still talking about a "soft landing" in housing — the condo market would like a word.