Brent Crude Hits $108 a Barrel as Iran War Escalates, Trump Says Prices Will Plummet After Nov. 3 Election

Oil Spikes Hardest Since May

Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped as much as 7.1% last Thursday, touching $108 a barrel before settling at $107.63, up 6.34% on the day, according to CNN. That was Brent's highest settle since May 19 and its biggest one-day move in six weeks.

U.S. crude climbed as much as 7.3%, hitting $103 for the first time since May before settling at $102.48, up 6.69%, CNN reported. That marked U.S. crude's highest settle since May 19 and its biggest single-day jump in two months.

The spike didn't come out of nowhere. Earlier in the month, on Thursday, September 10, Brent had already jumped about 4% and broken above $105 a barrel as the conflict's supply shock deepened, according to market commentary carried by aggregator Wild Rose. Some Bloomberg-sourced commentary earlier in September had actually pointed the other way, with oil falling and stocks rallying on hopes for progress toward ending the war with Iran. That optimism didn't hold.

What's Driving It

Fighting in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea intensified through September, according to CNN. The U.S. and Iran traded strikes. Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabia and ignited tensions in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and separately captured a strategic Red Sea port, tightening their grip on a key global chokepoint, CNN reported.

"The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war," said Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "This could set back the recovery in oil output in the Gulf and raises the risk that global energy prices rise even further in the coming weeks."

S&P Global Pushes Back Its Timeline

For the first time since the conflict began, S&P Global Energy said last Thursday it no longer expects Middle East oil production to return to pre-war levels by the end of 2027, CNN reported. The firm dropped its assumption of a definitive end to the war or a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by that date.

S&P now projects oil will stay in the $80 to $100 range through next year, according to CNN.

"[The market is] not returning to calm," said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy. "It is adjusting to the new normal defined by unresolved conflict and persistent maritime risk."

S&P's September projection is notably more pessimistic than earlier Bloomberg-sourced coverage, which had described traders pricing in hopes of de-escalation.

Trump's Prediction

President Trump struck a very different tone Wednesday night. "Prices right after this very important election on November 3rd will be plummeting," Trump said, according to CNN. "The war will be over very shortly after the election."

That's Trump's own political prediction. S&P Global's analysts, working off current battlefield and shipping conditions, are projecting the opposite: elevated prices persisting well into 2027. One is a market model built on current disruption levels; the other is a political promise tied to an election date. Only time will settle which read was closer.

The Bigger Ripple

The oil spike is already bleeding into other markets. CNN reported that rising crude prices added to worries about inflation and potential central bank rate hikes, sending shocks through bond and stock markets, with a bond selloff intensifying alongside the oil move.

Brent is near $108, U.S. crude near $103, both at multi-week highs, and S&P Global's own analysts no longer betting on a quick fix. Whether the war actually winds down after the November 3 election, as Trump predicts, is the open question markets will be pricing for the next several weeks regardless of who's proven right.