Anthropic's Run Rate Topped $80 Billion in October, WSJ Reports, While IPO Raise and Timing Come Into Question

Since Anthropic made its S-1 public on Oct. 26, the main new data point is a revenue number: the company's annualized run rate topped $80 billion at the end of October, up from September, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited a person familiar with the matter.

Market projections had clustered around $70 billion. That is the second straight monthly increase. TickerTrends, a paid data-tracking service, put its own estimate at $82.33 billion as of Oct. 30, up 7.2% from its Sept. 24 reading.

The rise follows the Sept. 22 launch of the company's Opus 5.5 model. No source has tied the jump to that launch.

What a run rate is, and isn't

A run rate takes a recent period's revenue and annualizes it. It is not booked revenue and it is not audited.

The S-1 figures are the company's reported numbers. Anthropic booked $16.29 billion in revenue in the six months ended June 30. Second-quarter revenue was about $11.6 billion, up from $4.73 billion in the first quarter and 1,368% higher than a year earlier.

Annual revenue was $41 million in 2023, $386 million in 2024 and $4.59 billion in 2025, according to figures Reuters compiled from the filing.

Crypto Briefing reports third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion to $17 billion.

Growth may be cooling even as the totals climb. Crypto Briefing reports that revenue growth has already eased from earlier triple-digit quarterly increases and that the company has signaled its previously rapid expansion rates may not be sustainable. Analysts have tempered full-year projections to a range of $70 billion to $100 billion, down from earlier hopes that exceeded $100 billion. The S-1 itself warns that Anthropic's growth rate could decline and fluctuate over time.

The loss and the bills

The growth comes with a very large red number. Anthropic reported a first-half net loss of $80.7 billion. Most of it came from a rise in the fair value of bonds that convert into Anthropic stock, a non-cash charge.

The operating picture is better. The first-half operating loss narrowed to $693 million from $2.1 billion a year earlier. Crypto Briefing reports the company posted a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter.

Then there is the spending. The S-1 shows more than $500 billion in computing commitments that the company largely cannot cancel. Crypto Briefing puts total infrastructure deals, mainly with Amazon, Google and Microsoft, at nearly $895 billion.

The two figures differ and the filing's own number is the lower one. Either way, the commitments are many multiples of the company's current revenue.

IPO plans shift

Anthropic filed confidentially in June and plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The Journal reported the company was aiming to begin trading the week of Nov. 16, ahead of Thanksgiving.

That plan is now in doubt. Crypto Briefing reports the offering may be delayed and the raise may shrink. A separate report that the target raise could fall to $80 billion from $100 billion has also circulated.

Valuation talk has cooled as well. Early speculation of $2 trillion has reportedly been trimmed to about $1.5 trillion. Anthropic's private valuation was $965 billion in May.

Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, said in comments reported by Reuters that Anthropic is entering an IPO market "far more challenging than the summer. Investors were not questioning valuations the same way a few months ago." Decade-high bond yields have made investors wary of the debt-funded AI build-out, the InvestmentNews account of the filing notes. SpaceX's June debut came before that shift.

Two readings of a delay

The investor known as Serenity, the "White-Haired God of Stocks," argued on X that the $80 billion figure "significantly surpasses prior market expectations." He added that Anthropic "may still be wise to delay its IPO," given what he described as a wave of liquidations in the market. He said a delay could also ease liquidity pressure on other AI companies.

GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind sees higher stakes in the listing itself. "Once Anthropic trades, every other private AI company will be measured against a daily public price," he said. "That could reset expectations across the private AI market." He added that a successful debut could encourage other large AI and tech companies to list.

Some market participants have suggested Anthropic plans to feature the October figure in its final S-1 to support its valuation. That is speculation. Anthropic has not said so.

What comes next

Anthropic has not disclosed how many shares it will sell or at what price. An S-1 amendment followed on Nov. 2, according to Crypto Briefing. Whether the company holds to the week of Nov. 16, pushes into December, or prices a smaller deal will show how public investors weigh an $80 billion run rate against an $80.7 billion half-year loss and a compute bill north of $500 billion.