American Airlines Widens 2026 Loss Forecast to $1.00 to $1.60 a Share, Fourth Major Carrier to Cut Outlook on Fuel

Since Delta, United and Southwest cut their 2026 profit outlooks earlier this month, American Airlines has become the fourth major U.S. carrier to do the same. The company said Thursday, Oct. 22, that it expects an adjusted full-year loss of $1.00 to $1.60 a share.

In July, American guided to a range running from a loss of 65 cents to a profit of 65 cents. Analysts had been looking for a full-year loss of about 98 cents, according to TradingView.

The quarter in numbers

Revenue hit a record $16.34 billion in the third quarter, up 19.3% from a year earlier. Passenger revenue per available seat mile rose 14.6%, helped by an 18.3% gain in yield.

Fuel ate all of it. American's fuel bill rose 67.5% to $4.64 billion, an increase of nearly $2 billion from last year's third quarter.

The airline reported a net loss of $269 million, or 41 cents a share, compared with a loss of $114 million, or 17 cents, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, the loss was 28 cents a share. That was narrower than Wall Street expected.

"American delivered record third-quarter revenue and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career, with premium performance leading the way," CEO Robert Isom said in a news release. He also said, "While historically high fuel prices significantly impacted our financial results, our focus remains on restoring profitability and building a stronger American for the long term."

Fourth quarter looks worse

American guided to a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 a share. The consensus estimate going in was a loss of 41 cents.

Revenue is expected to rise 19.5% to 22.5%. Capacity is forecast up 5.5% to 6.5%. Unit costs excluding fuel, special items and profit-sharing are expected to rise 2.5% to 3.5%.

The airline expects fourth-quarter jet fuel to cost nearly double last year's level, a $2.8 billion increase over the fourth quarter of 2025. It expects elevated prices to continue into 2027. The jump in fuel followed the start of the Iran war, and fares have climbed more than 20% from a year ago.

American said it will slow capacity growth next year in response. It has not said by how much.

Why American is hurting more than its rivals

Delta cut its full-year earnings guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 a share from $6.50 to $7.50, and still earned $1.5 billion in adjusted pre-tax profit. American is guiding to a loss.

The blog Live and Let's Fly argues that fuel alone does not explain the gap. Its writer points to American's adjusted operating margin of about 2.7% in the second quarter and says that against peers' results, "fuel cannot be the whole explanation."

The blog also notes that United said in July it expected to recover 80% to 90% of its third-quarter fuel increase through higher revenue. TradingView, meanwhile, describes American as vulnerable because its fuel costs are unhedged.

American's own numbers show the squeeze. In the second quarter, fuel expense rose 83% while revenue rose 16.3%. Over the twelve months to June 30, operating margin fell to 1.8% from 5.1%, and the airline swung to a net loss of $326 million from a $567 million profit, according to Trefis.

Debt and the stock

Total debt stood at $35.7 billion on June 30, down from $37.2 billion a year earlier, per Trefis. Liveandletsfly puts long-term debt and finance leases at about $28.9 billion, with $11.3 billion in total liquidity. Management says it is committed to reducing debt.

The stock was already weak. Shares lost 18.1% in the three months to Oct. 20 while the S&P 500 gained 3.1%, according to Trefis. They closed near $11.87 on Oct. 16, down from the mid-$13 range in late September.

Analysts have been cutting targets. BMO lowered its target to $15.50 from $19, Bank of America to $15 from $17, and Goldman Sachs to $11 from $13 with a sell rating. Morgan Stanley forecasts deeper losses for American and JetBlue, saying jet fuel is running at roughly double what had been expected.

In premarket trading Thursday, American shares were down about 4%. Regular trading begins at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Management under pressure

Isom has faced pressure to close the profit gap with Delta and United. American is spending on lounges, cabins with more premium seats and airport facilities, and plans to equip more than 500 aircraft with Starlink Wi-Fi.

The airline named a new network chief earlier this month, the latest step in a management shake-up that includes new hires in operations and the commercial team. Nat Pieper joined as commercial chief last year.

The 2027 capacity plan is the question to watch. American has said it will slow growth but has not given a figure, and the size of that cut will show how long it expects fuel to stay this expensive.