The Ceasefire Didn't Fix the Energy Markets

A ceasefire has been confirmed. The Strait of Hormuz is technically reopening. European energy prices remain severely elevated.

Brent crude peaked near $120 per barrel during the conflict. After the ceasefire was confirmed, it dropped — but settled around $93 per barrel as of Wednesday, according to Euronews. That's still roughly 25–30% above pre-war levels of $72–$73.

European natural gas futures tell the same story. Prices spiked from about €35.50/MWh before the war to a peak of €61.93/MWh on March 19, according to Euronews. Post-ceasefire? They're sitting at roughly €44/MWh. Better than the peak. Still 24% above where they started.

QatarEnergy Just Made It Worse

QatarEnergy has extended a force majeure clause on some LNG deliveries, according to the Wall Street Journal. Force majeure means they're legally excusing themselves from contractual delivery obligations because of circumstances beyond their control.

Europe is still NOT getting the gas it contracted for. The ceasefire doesn't automatically restore normal supply flows.

The WSJ reported European natural-gas prices climbed on the combination of U.S.-Iran uncertainty and this QatarEnergy force majeure extension. Those are two separate problems hitting simultaneously.

Stocks Are Feeling It Too

Bloomberg reported European stocks declined on continued U.S.-Iran tension worries, with BP specifically slumping. BP is a bellwether for European energy market sentiment. When BP drops on a ceasefire day, the market is saying it doesn't fully believe the crisis is over.

French power prices also jumped separately, according to Bloomberg, driven by hot weather raising concerns about nuclear output. France runs heavily on nuclear power, and when summer heat forces river cooling water temperatures up, reactor output gets throttled. This compounds an already tight energy situation across the continent.

The Structural Problem

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said last week, according to Euronews: "Even if that peace is here tomorrow, still we will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future."

The damage extends beyond current geopolitics.

The International Energy Agency characterized this conflict as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" — larger, proportionally, than the 1970s oil shock. Strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure were severe. Iran struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery — the world's largest oil export terminal, processing 550,000 barrels per day — according to the International Relations Review. That facility doesn't return to full capacity with a ceasefire announcement.

Iran also targeted the South Pars gas field and Kharg Island, according to conflict timelines. These aren't minor targets. South Pars is one of the world's largest natural gas fields. Damage there has a multi-year impact on global gas supply, Euronews reported.

What's Really Happening

Roughly 20% of global LNG flows were disrupted, per the International Relations Review. Disruptions to Middle Eastern gas pipelines amount to nearly 130 billion cubic metres of supply. Supply chains of that scale don't normalize in weeks.

Europe imports 80–85% of its oil, according to Eurostat. Most of that is priced against Brent crude. Even with U.S. suppliers (the EU's single largest source at 15.1% by value) and Norwegian and Kazakh alternatives, the global benchmark price dictates what Europeans pay at the pump and on their energy bills.

In many European countries, electricity prices are set by the most expensive generation source — which is almost always gas. When gas prices stay elevated, power bills stay elevated. The ceasefire doesn't change that dynamic overnight.

What This Means for Regular People

European energy bill spikes won't disappear anytime soon. Commissioner Jørgensen isn't hedging. The infrastructure damage is real, the LNG supply gaps are real, and QatarEnergy's continued force majeure means contracted supply still isn't flowing normally.

U.S. consumers shouldn't assume insulation from this crisis. Gas prices spiked more than 30% in several U.S. states following the conflict's early stages, hitting New Mexico hardest, according to the International Relations Review. American energy markets aren't insulated from a global supply shock of this magnitude.

The ceasefire is real. The energy crisis remains.