The Numbers Don't Lie

In 2008, California voters approved a $9.95 billion bond measure for a high-speed rail line connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco. The promise: done by 2020.

It is now 2026. Eighteen years later. The most charitable cost estimate is now $126.2 billion, according to the California High-Speed Rail Authority's own 2026 Draft Business Plan. The full Phase 1 buildout is re-estimated at $231.3 billion. That's over 23 times the original price tag.

And the track? Not a single mile of it.

What does exist in the San Joaquin Valley — connecting a station near Merced to one near Bakersfield — is a stretch of concrete support columns with no rails, no trains, and no service. CalMatters reported that critics have started calling it Stonehenge.

Newsom Wants to Tap Local Tax Bases

Facing a financial black hole, the High-Speed Rail Authority floated a new funding mechanism in its 2026 Draft Business Plan: redirect tax revenue growth from areas near future rail stations back into the project. This is called tax increment financing — and it means money that would normally flow to local governments for schools, fire departments, and public services would instead prop up the rail project.

Ten mayors aren't having it.

Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer, joined by nine other city leaders, sent a letter to the CEO of the High-Speed Rail Authority blasting the proposal. Fox News Digital obtained the letter.

"This proposal in the 2026 Draft Business Plan is fiscally reckless, legally vulnerable, and fundamentally unfair to the communities expected to host High-Speed Rail facilities," the mayors wrote. "It would weaken local governments, destabilize public services, and undermine constitutional protections that California voters have repeatedly affirmed. Simply put: the state cannot solve a state funding problem by raiding local tax bases."

The mayors called on the state to pursue voter-approved bonds or dedicated state revenue sources instead of what they described as a "legally dubious scheme."

The High-Speed Rail Authority pushed back, telling the Fresno Bee there is "no finalized plan" to capture local revenues — just an ongoing discussion in a draft document. Floating a trial balloon in an official planning document and then calling it "not a proposal" is the oldest bureaucratic trick in the book.

Newsom Didn't Always Love This Train

Newsom himself called this project a disaster — twice — before becoming its loudest cheerleader.

In a 2014 recorded interview, then-Lieutenant Governor Newsom said, "The facts seem overwhelming that this project is not going to materialize in our lifetime."

In his first State of the State address in 2019, he told legislators: "Let's be real. The project as currently planned would cost too much and take too long."

That was 2019. Seven years later, Newsom is staging media events to celebrate incremental concrete pours and suing the federal government to keep the money flowing.

The Feds Already Cut the Cord

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy pulled $4 billion in federal funding from the project after what he described as an exhaustive review of the project's mismanagement, delays, and cost overruns. Newsom responded by filing a lawsuit against Duffy.

Duffy fired back in an op-ed published in the Sacramento Bee, writing: "What was supposed to be a line from Los Angeles to San Francisco for $33 billion completed by 2020 has morphed into a colossal boondoggle projected to cost over three times the original estimate."

Duffy also made a pointed comparison: for $135 billion, the federal government could build 10 aircraft carriers, or overhaul the air traffic control system three to four times over.

He also addressed the inevitable "this is political" accusation by citing his track record. In April, Duffy terminated a separate $60 million Amtrak grant for the Texas Central Railway — a red state project. Same standard, different state. The argument that this is about punishing California doesn't hold up.

What the Media Is Getting Wrong

Most mainstream coverage frames this as a federal-vs-California political fight. The real story is local Democratic mayors revolting against their own Democratic governor over a project that's been bleeding money for nearly two decades.

The CBS News program 60 Minutes ran an interview with project officials that CalMatters reported left them unable to explain how or when the bullet train would ever be completed. That detail deserved more attention than it got.

The High-Speed Rail Authority calling a funding mechanism outlined in its own official planning document "not a proposal" also deserves harder scrutiny than most outlets are giving it.

What This Means for Regular Californians

If this tax increment scheme moves forward, cities near planned rail stations — including Fresno, Bakersfield, and others along the Central Valley corridor — could see less money for cops, firefighters, road repair, and schools. All to subsidize a train that was supposed to be running six years ago.

Taxpayers statewide have already watched $15 billion vanish into this project with nothing to show for it. Now the state wants to dip into local government funding streams to keep the dream alive.

Mayor Dyer and his nine colleagues are drawing the line. Whether Sacramento listens is another question entirely, but at least one corner of California government is applying basic math to this situation.