Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Will Keep Striking Russian Refineries as Starlink and Missile-Warning Problems Pile Up

The rift between Washington and Kyiv over Trump's Russian diesel waiver and his announced "energy ceasefire" widened again this week. Zelenskyy declared Thursday, Oct. 15, that Ukraine will not honor the U.S. request to stop attacking Russian refineries, according to the New York Times. Putin, meanwhile, is refusing Trump's demand for a ceasefire.

The diesel relief Trump promised voters has not shown up at the pump. AAA put the average U.S. diesel price at about $6.32 a gallon Thursday, compared with $6.29 a week earlier. A year ago it was a little over $3.65.

Starlink and missile warnings

Ukrainian officials said Wednesday, Oct. 14, that Starshield, the military-grade version of Starlink, was interrupted when terminals moved at high speed. That hampers attack drones and air defense.

Zelenskyy also said that for the second night running, Ukraine got no warning from partners of a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv.

The Guardian reported that Ukraine's Starlink access was suddenly restricted as the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to halt long-range strikes on Russia's oil industry. Reuters reported that the reasons for the problems were not immediately clear.

Elon Musk, whose SpaceX runs Starlink, wrote on X: "Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS."

Trump said Tuesday, Oct. 13, that the U.S. is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. Zelenskyy told NPR the administration warned it could cut that sharing unless the refinery strikes stop.

Europe has no ready replacement

The episode exposed how much Ukraine and Europe lean on American systems. The Space-Based Infrared System, a U.S. satellite constellation, provides early missile warning by detecting the heat of launches.

"There is nothing equivalent in Europe," said Marc DeVore, an associate fellow at Chatham House.

On Starlink, Europe has no ready-made terminal that Ukrainian soldiers could mount on drones. European governments and companies are working on long-term options.

Eutelsat shares jumped Wednesday on investor bets that European providers could gain from the strain between Washington and Kyiv. Independent satellite consultant Christian Freiherr von der Ropp said Eutelsat's OneWeb network is poorly suited to wartime use. He called its architecture "outdated" and said terminal cost, weight, bulk and power draw limit frontline applications.

A Eutelsat spokesperson said the company continues to provide connectivity in Ukraine through its low Earth orbit and geostationary networks with partners.

The diesel deal and the ceasefire that wasn't

On Friday, Oct. 9, Trump permitted Russian diesel imports into the U.S. under a sanctions waiver running until April 2027. The move came about three weeks after he signed a law authorizing tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top buyers of Russian energy, as noted by Samir Puri, a war studies lecturer.

Trump then announced on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop hitting each other's energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy said he learned of it from social media. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that contacts were ongoing.

Puri wrote that Russia struck at least six Ukrainian energy targets within hours of Trump declaring the truce "effective immediately."

Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will stop its strikes only if Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy sites. He told NPR that Putin "understands force."

Who is blamed for fuel prices

Trump has blamed Ukraine's refinery strikes for the diesel shortfall. Zelenskyy rejects that, pointing to the blocked Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war. He also said the waiver would not move U.S. prices because "the volume is not enough."

The numbers back up the volume point. Puri cites an estimate that Russia could release over 2 million barrels in October, while U.S. consumers burn about 3.6 million barrels a day. Shipments can take weeks to reach the East Coast, and Russia may struggle to raise supply in November and December because of refinery damage from Ukrainian attacks.

Administration officials argue that dealing with Russia could pave the way for peace by showing Putin and hard-liners around him the benefits of cooperation, the New York Times reported. Trump has used the deal on the stump. At a recent rally in Syracuse, N.Y., he said: "Russia agreed to send us millions and millions of barrels of oil and its diesel. That's what we really need."

The New York Times reports Russia is not known to have made any concession in return for the waiver.

The midterm elections are Nov. 3. Trump says the intelligence is still flowing, while Kyiv says warnings of missile attacks on its capital have stopped arriving. That gap, along with the Starlink limits Musk attributes to the U.S. government, remains unresolved.