US Embassy Warns Americans of Possible Long-Range Attacks on Ethiopian Military Sites, Bars Travel to Three Regions

The US Embassy in Addis Ababa put Americans on notice a week ago. In a security alert on Wednesday, Oct. 7, it said it is aware of reports of "possible long-range attacks directed at Ethiopian military installations on several instances in October of this year."

The embassy told citizens to exercise caution and follow the advice of local authorities. It did not say who might be behind the attacks, what weapons were involved, or whether any more were expected.

What the embassy told Americans

The alert is blunt on travel. "U.S. citizens are advised not to travel to the Amhara Region (including Lalibela), the Tigray Region, or the Afar Region for any reason."

Americans already there were told to leave if it is safe to do so, or shelter in place until conditions improve. The embassy also told them to monitor local media and stay in contact with their airlines about flight changes.

Internet and phone service could be cut at any time, the embassy warned. It advised Americans to reconsider travel to Ethiopia overall, while noting that "the security situation in Addis Ababa remains stable" even as there is "sporadic armed conflict and civil unrest in Northern Ethiopia" that remains fluid.

The embassy also cautioned that some social media accounts are carrying false and misleading reports about the security situation, and urged citizens to verify information across multiple sources.

The blasts in the capital

The alert came six days after explosions were heard in Addis Ababa overnight on Oct. 1. An Ethiopian intelligence official told the Associated Press that three blasts hit different locations. A diplomatic source reported hearing an explosion near the country's defense headquarters. AP said it was unclear whether the blasts were an attack or part of military training exercises.

A source linked to the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, an armed opposition coalition fighting the federal government, told Reuters the group carried out several drone strikes in the capital, including against the military headquarters. That claim is unverified. Ethiopian authorities have not confirmed that drones caused the explosions, and Fox News Digital said its requests for comment to the Ethiopian government went unanswered.

The blasts followed a ban on drone flights over Addis Ababa and surrounding areas, which Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service imposed hours earlier. The embassy's alert did not tie the threat to those explosions or to any group.

Blen Mamo, executive director of the Ethiopian Horn Review think tank, told Fox News Digital that if the blasts were aerial or drone attacks, they exceed the capabilities of Ethiopia's domestic insurgent groups. In her view, that would support Ethiopia's allegation of foreign state involvement. No foreign government has been named in the material tied to the alert.

A war that restarted on Sept. 23

The northern front is the larger story. Fighting between federal forces and Tigrayan forces led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front erupted on Sept. 23. It is the most serious fighting since the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended a two-year war.

Federal troops and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters retook Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew from the regional capital, according to Somalia Today. Air strikes and artillery fire were then reported elsewhere in Tigray. The UN has pointed to the seizure of airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire, and the fighting has spread into parts of Amhara and Afar.

The African Union, which brokered the Pretoria talks, voiced deep concern on Sept. 23 over the military buildup and urged both sides back to direct dialogue. The regional bloc IGAD called for an immediate halt to hostilities. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged all parties to protect civilians and allow humanitarian access.

Ozonnia Ojielo, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ethiopia, said the fighting poses grave risks to civilians, particularly displaced people, and that incidents targeting aid workers, assets and facilities are increasing.

The regional risk

Cameron Hudson, a former CIA analyst and National Security Council Africa director, told Fox News Digital that regional leaders say privately they do not want a wider war. "But with so many armed actors and so much meddling going on in each other's countries, a regional conflagration becomes increasingly likely," he said. He argued the Trump administration needs to work now to guard against that kind of miscalculation.

Fox News Digital also reported that analysts see a high probability of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with regional backing on both sides. No government has announced such a conflict.

Addis Ababa is home to the African Union's headquarters, so a security breakdown there would reach well beyond Ethiopia.

The open questions are concrete. Ethiopian officials have not said what caused the Oct. 1 explosions. The embassy has not said what the reports of attacks rest on. And the federal government and the TPLF-led alliance have not returned to the dialogue the AU asked for.