Bulgaria's Radev Says Russia Likely Behind Black Sea Drone Strikes, Concedes No Proof, as 10 to 11 Sailors Remain Missing

Since drones struck ships in Bulgaria's Black Sea exclusive economic zone on Oct. 6, the attacks have moved closer to NATO territory and turned deadlier. The latest came overnight on Oct. 13, when two cargo vessels were hit. One sank.

On Wednesday, Oct. 14, Prime Minister Rumen Radev told Parliament that Russia was likely behind the strikes. Then he acknowledged the problem.

"There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favours Russia," Radev said. "The problem is that we cannot prove it."

What was hit

The Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship Dignity (also reported as HS Dignity) sank after a military strike roughly 17 nautical miles east of the village of Krapets, near the Romanian border. Varna district governor Mario Smrkov said five sailors were rescued from a crew of 16 as of Tuesday. Four of those, three Syrians and one Egyptian, were brought to Varna in relatively good condition, and a fifth was expected to arrive Wednesday.

The number still missing is not settled. Bulgarian officials have cited 11, and a later Bulgarian tally put it at 10. Search and rescue operations are continuing.

The second vessel, the Chelsea 3, is a Ukrainian-owned cargo ship sailing under the Maltese flag. It was struck around 1:30 a.m. on Oct. 13 by three drones, about 18 nautical miles off the coast near Byala. The crew said the deck and hull were hit. All 15 crew members, seven Ukrainians and eight Azerbaijanis, were evacuated and taken to Varna, and five were treated for minor injuries. The vessel was later left without its crew near Cape St. Athanasius.

Both ships were hit in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, just outside its 12-mile territorial waters.

Sofia's case, and Moscow's answer

Radev called the strikes "absolutely unacceptable" and summoned Russian Ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova on Oct. 13. He told her that "it makes no sense for Ukraine to destroy its own ships in the Black Sea, and the results of these strikes favour Russia's interests," according to the government press office.

Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov went further on the operational side. After talks with his Romanian and Turkish counterparts, he said Bulgaria assumes the drones were Russian, and that the attacks signal a rising security threat in the region.

Mitrofanova did not accept that framing. She said she had no information from Russia's Defense Ministry about the attacks. She said she understood Radev's logic but did not rule out that the strikes were "a provocation by a third party." Russian authorities had not otherwise commented, and no one has claimed responsibility.

Radev's own words are the limit of the public case. "We do not have clear and conclusive evidence to attribute responsibility to either side," he said Tuesday. His argument is about who benefits, not forensic attribution. No drone wreckage analysis or launch-point finding has been made public.

The economic bill

Bulgaria says it is already paying. Radev's office said the attacks have raised risks for commercial shipping, pushed up insurance costs, and led to "even refusals to transport cargo to Bulgarian ports." The statement stressed that Bulgaria is "not a party in the war."

Grain markets have shrugged so far. Mike Verdin, senior markets consultant at CRM AgriCommodities, said more attacks "don't really alter the picture much, bar reminding the market that Black Sea shipping does have its dangers." Preslav Raykov of Magic Flame Group said the strikes are starting to change risk perceptions among grain traders new to the region. If they intensify, he said, exports from Romania and Bulgaria could suffer. Bulgaria is a big net wheat exporter.

NATO and EU

Radev spoke with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He asked for help strengthening maritime and airspace surveillance and for support for an investigation into where the drones came from.

Rutte said NATO will keep working closely with its Black Sea allies. He said the alliance has strengthened its posture on the eastern flank and will adjust deterrence and defense measures as needed.

Von der Leyen said the Black Sea "has become another front of escalation of the Russian war in Ukraine," without naming Russia as the attacker.

Both ships were hit inside Bulgaria's economic zone, not its territorial sea. Sofia has not said whether it will seek anything beyond help with surveillance and an investigation.

Attribution is the central gap. Until the investigation Bulgaria has requested identifies where the drones came from, the government's position rests on motive alone, and Moscow's denial-by-silence stands unanswered.