Trump Hasn't Signed the Iran Deal Yet

Four days ago, Trump was on the phone with CNBC telling Eamon Javers the Iran talks had "started to get very boring." Monday was a mess — Iranian state media outlet Tasnim reported Tehran was halting negotiations entirely and threatening to "completely block" the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spiked, and Asia-Pacific markets opened Tuesday with Japan's Nikkei down 1.32%, South Korea's Kospi down 1.92%.

By Thursday, the picture looked completely different.

According to the Associated Press, U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement Thursday to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and launch a new round of talks on Iran's nuclear program. The AP report, published by PBS NewsHour, cited a U.S. official familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Iran did NOT immediately confirm the deal.

Vance Confirms It — With a Major Caveat

Vice President JD Vance spoke to reporters Thursday evening and confirmed a tentative agreement exists. But he put the brakes on any celebration.

"It's hard to say exactly when or if the president's going to sign," Vance said, according to the AP. "We're going back and forth on a couple of language points."

Axios also reported the deal was reached but still requires Trump's final approval — per their scoop, it's not done until Trump signs off.

A tentative deal and a signed deal are two completely different things. Multiple outlets are running headlines implying this is essentially finished. It is NOT. Vance explicitly said Trump's approval is unclear.

What the Deal Actually Says

The tentative memorandum of understanding addresses the Strait of Hormuz directly — which has been the central economic choke point of this entire conflict.

According to the AP, the agreement makes clear that Iran cannot impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and must remove all mines from the waterway within 30 days. Since the war began roughly three months ago, Iran has effectively closed the strait — previously the conduit for about a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas. The closure sent oil prices "skyrocketing," per the AP.

Iran has allowed some commercial traffic — about two dozen vessels daily in recent days, down from more than 100 per day before the war. And it has been charging tolls on at least some ships, with a formal gatekeeper agency established to manage access.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday that oil prices could "come down very quickly" once a deal is finalized.

The Chaos That Got Us Here

Monday was a full-blown diplomatic circus.

Iran threatened to suspend talks over Israel's military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Trump simultaneously told CNBC he "couldn't care less" and posted on Truth Social that "Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran." Those two statements, made within hours of each other, directly contradicted each other.

When CNBC asked Trump directly whether Iran had informed him talks were ending, he said: "No, they haven't." So either Iran's state media was bluffing, or the communication breakdown between Washington and Tehran was real and significant. Probably both.

Then Trump posted about calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — saying he'd spoken to Hezbollah through "highly placed Representatives" and brokered a shooting stop in Lebanon. Netanyahu, in his own post on X, pushed back, saying if Hezbollah didn't stop attacking Israeli cities, Israel would strike Beirut. That's NOT a ceasefire confirmation. That's a threat.

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) had warned on Fox News Sunday that a final Iran deal could take a "very long time." That warning looks prescient now.

Market Reaction

Oil held its biggest single-day gain in a month Monday on the Strait of Hormuz standoff, according to Bloomberg. Gold held a decline as traders tried to parse the contradictory signals — markets don't like confusion, and Monday delivered maximum confusion.

Asia-Pacific equities took the hit Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, U.S. markets shrugged it off — the S&P 500 actually closed at a record 7,599.96, with Nasdaq up 0.42%, driven largely by Nvidia's new PC chip launch. Tech optimism beat geopolitical anxiety on Wall Street. For now.

If Trump signs this deal and Hormuz mines start getting cleared, Bessent's prediction about oil prices dropping "very quickly" has real teeth. A fifth of the world's traded energy flowing freely again would be a material economic event.

The Oman Wrinkle

The Wall Street Journal reported separately that the U.S. is now pressing Oman — the neutral Gulf state that has historically served as the back-channel between Washington and Tehran — to cut ties with Iran entirely. That's a significant ask. Oman's value in this process has always been precisely its neutrality. If Washington forces Oman to pick a side, it loses the one Arab state both parties trusted as an intermediary.

Killing the mediator mid-negotiation is not a great strategy. But here we are.

Where This Stands

The deal isn't done. Trump hasn't signed. Iran hasn't confirmed. Language disputes remain. The ceasefire is fragile — Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles less than 24 hours before the tentative agreement was reached, according to U.S. Central Command cited by the AP.

This is progress. Real progress. Anyone telling you this is over is getting ahead of the facts. Watch for Trump's signature — or his Truth Social post calling the whole thing boring again.