Trump Gets Burned in Iowa

Rep. Randy Feenstra — a sitting U.S. congressman with a presidential endorsement in his pocket — lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to Zach Lahn, a conservative farmer. Not a close loss. An outright defeat.

According to Reason, the New York Times described Feenstra's defeat as the highest-profile Trump-endorsed primary loss in years — possibly since Luther Strange lost to Roy Moore in Alabama's 2017 special election primary. That race ended with Roy Moore losing the general election to Democrat Doug Jones.

Lahn wasn't running as an anti-Trump candidate. He was running on MAHA — Make America Healthy Again — the RFK Jr.-adjacent wing of the populist right that's focused on food, health bureaucracies, and pharmaceutical skepticism. Think Trumpism without the full MAGA packaging.

According to Reason, Feenstra essentially phoned in his campaign. When you're an incumbent congressman with a Trump endorsement and you still lose, the referendum falls on the candidate, not the endorser.

But the kingmaker narrative takes real damage. When Trump's endorsement can't save a lazy campaign in a state he won by 13 points in 2024, the endorsement isn't the guarantee it once was.

What Lahn Faces Now

Lahn will now face Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand in November. Sand ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, per NPR's coverage of Tuesday's results.

According to Politico, Democrats believe they now have their best shot at winning big in Iowa in more than a decade — with Sand for governor, Turek for Senate, and multiple House races in play simultaneously. That's a coordinated ballot presence they haven't had in years.

The Washington Post, as cited by Reason, acknowledged that Iowa leans red but said Democrats see "a backlash to Trump's second term" creating unusual competitiveness. Iowa is still a tough state for Democrats, but Lahn is an unknown quantity at the top of the ticket, and he now has to run statewide against a credible opponent.

California's Governor Race: Still Murky

As of Wednesday morning, according to NPR and the Guardian, the California gubernatorial primary remained too close to fully call.

Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general election. Trump congratulated Hilton on Truth Social, writing that if "Californians are smart" they'll put him in the governor's mansion, per Fox News. Hilton finished first overall on primary night.

On the Democratic side, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra and billionaire Tom Steyer are competing for the second slot. A Becerra matchup gives Hilton a clean ideological contrast. A Steyer matchup turns it into a money fight.

California's jungle primary sends the top two vote-getters to November regardless of party. A Hilton-Becerra general election would be the most competitive California governor's race in at least a generation.

According to NPR, three major Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla, and state AG Rob Bonta — all passed on the race. That's why the Democratic field was chaotic, with over 60 candidates on the ballot and no clear frontrunner for the first time in decades.

The L.A. Mayor Race

Karen Bass advanced in her L.A. mayoral reelection bid, per both the Guardian and Reason. Her November opponent is still unclear — the source roundup mentions Spencer Pratt as a possibility, though results were still coming in.

Bass managed to advance despite overseeing the city's catastrophic January 2025 wildfire response. That decision by Los Angeles voters reflects how they weigh accountability against other factors.

Coverage Gaps

Left-leaning outlets like NPR and Politico are running hard with the "Democrats see opportunity" frame. That's legitimate, but it flattens the complexity. Lahn winning in Iowa was not a Democratic wave — it was Republicans choosing a different kind of Republican. The Democratic optimism depends heavily on whether Lahn can consolidate the MAGA base that Feenstra would have inherited.

Fox News is focusing almost entirely on Hilton's California prospects and Trump's congratulations, which buries the Iowa story — the most politically significant result of the night for Republicans. A Trump-endorsed congressman lost.

The Real Stakes

Democrats need four Senate pickups to flip the chamber. Iowa is one of their targets. If Sand wins the governorship and Turek defeats Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate, Iowa flips two major offices in a single cycle. That's not impossible in a state Trump won by double digits, but it's far from a sure thing.

For Republicans, Lahn needs to prove he's more than a protest vote. And someone in the party needs to ask whether Trump's endorsement machine needs recalibration before November. Presidential endorsements in primaries are not blank checks — candidates still have to show up and run.