Since the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Trump's approval numbers have been sliding — and as of June 4, 2026, they've hit a floor few anticipated this quickly.

The Numbers Are Brutal

The latest Economist/YouGov survey, conducted May 29 through June 1 among 1,604 adults, puts Trump at 35% approval and 60% disapproval — a net rating of -25. That's down another 1.1 points from the prior week, according to The Daily Beast's reporting on the poll.

This is worse than any president measured by this survey going back to 2009. At the same point in his first term, Trump was at -10. Joe Biden was also at -10 at this stage. Trump in his second term has managed to be 2.5 times more underwater than either version of himself or his predecessor.

His net approval on inflation specifically sits at -43, according to The Independent. Three-quarters of respondents call the economy "fair" or "poor." Fifty-nine percent say it's getting worse. And 46% — far more than any other issue — list the economy as the top concern facing the country, according to the YouGov/Economist data.

The Iran War Is the Accelerant

Only 29% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, while 64% disapprove. More damning: 55% now say going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, and 68% say the war should be ended as soon as possible, per the same survey.

The Strait of Hormuz has been blockaded since the conflict began, and the economic consequences are real and measurable. AAA reports the national average for regular gasoline has climbed above $4.50 per gallon, with prices exceeding $5 in seven states. Oil prices have risen roughly 35%. Moody's Analytics estimates the war has cost U.S. households approximately $100 billion total — nearly $750 per household.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said "help is on the way." Trump called the price increases "peanuts" and insisted the White House would make energy prices "plummet" once the Strait reopens. That's a promise, not a policy. And voters aren't buying it.

Republicans Are Scared. Trump Is Not.

Republican senators are privately sounding alarms, according to The Hill's reporting. The concern: Trump's collapse with independent voters could set up a potential political wipeout in November's midterms. With a thin House majority already, losing independents by this margin is not a manageable situation — it's a structural crisis.

Former Chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Pence Marc Short said Wednesday on the record that Trump is "under no pressure to change his agenda before the midterms" because he still controls the Republican Party apparatus. Short isn't wrong about that narrow point. But controlling a party and winning a general election are two different things.

The Marquette Law School Poll, conducted over six days in late May with 1,000 registered voters, illustrates the split clearly. Among Republicans who are MAGA-aligned — roughly 72% of GOP respondents — 93% approve of Trump. Among the remaining 28% of Republicans, only about a third approve. Among independents, it's 17%. Among Democrats, 7%.

You can't win midterms on 17% with independents.

Primary Control ≠ General Election Dominance

The Marquette poll also notes that Trump-backed candidates have won primaries in Texas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Indiana. 71% of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump-endorsed candidates. His grip on the primary process is real.

But primary dominance is the floor, not the ceiling. The same voters who hand Trump his chosen candidates in May are a closed ecosystem. November is a different electorate.

The Fox News poll referenced by The Hill adds another data point: in Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads current Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 8 points. Ohio went for Trump twice. If a Democrat is up 8 in Ohio, the midterm map for Republicans is in serious trouble.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets are treating these numbers as vindication of anti-war and progressive politics. That's a misread. Voters aren't necessarily moving left — they're moving away from a specific policy outcome they're paying for at the pump every day.

Right-leaning coverage, meanwhile, keeps emphasizing Trump's iron grip on the primary process as proof of resilience. That's also a misread. Marc Short's argument that Trump faces no pressure to change is politically coherent but strategically reckless if your goal is keeping the House.

The real story: $4.50 gas and a war most Americans now oppose is a combination that historically destroys incumbent parties in midterms. No amount of primary wins changes that math.

What This Means for Regular People

If Republicans lose the House in November, Trump's second-term agenda — whatever remains of it — effectively dies. No more rubber-stamp legislation. Investigations start. The White House becomes reactive instead of proactive.

For now, Trump is betting that the Strait of Hormuz reopens, gas prices fall, and he can claim victory on Iran before voters cast ballots. That's possible. It's also a lot of dominoes that need to fall in the right order, on the right timeline, for a president currently sitting at 35% approval.

The clock is running.