Trump Closes Midterm Campaign at Reflecting Pool as Supreme Court Rejects Bid to Set Aside 20,000 California Ballots

Since the White House named the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool as the venue for Trump's closing midterm speech, the final 24 hours have brought a Supreme Court loss on California ballots, a dismissed Alaska lawsuit and a Senate forecast shift toward Democrats.

The speech

Trump spoke Monday afternoon, Nov. 2, in front of the newly reopened pool. He called the election "the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime" and said that if a good portion of his 2024 voters turn out, "we will win in a landslide."

He also acknowledged the history working against him. "Usually, whoever the sitting President is, Republican or Democrat, good or bad... the sitting President doesn't win the midterms," he said. "But we gave this a very strong shot."

The election came late. Trump touted the granite, the new pipes and the "soft dark blue" paint first, claimed 2,300 repaired lighting fixtures and 83 renovated statues and monuments, and did not reach the midterms until 23 minutes in, according to ABC News.

The renovation itself is a sore spot. Reuters and The Associated Press reported that the project ran nearly three months late and cost more than 10 times its initial budget.

Robert Rowland, a professor of rhetoric at the University of Kansas, said he was surprised Trump was not in working-class districts with Republicans in tough races. In his view the message was about "what I, the president, have accomplished in a place where most of you don't live."

The White House frames the campaign differently. Spokesperson Olivia Wales said that with Republicans in control of Congress, "Americans can expect safer streets, lower taxes, secure borders, and energy dominance." Trump also joined nine tele-rallies Monday, including one for Rep. Mike Lawler and New York gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman. "You have to pretend I'm on the ballot," he told that audience, "because when I'm on the ballot, we get almost 50% more voters out."

House Speaker Mike Johnson, campaigning in suburban Richmond for Rep. Rob Wittman, told a crowd: "Dismiss the polls; dismiss the pundits." He argued the polls are missing Republican enthusiasm on the ground.

Courts reject two Trump-administration election efforts

The Supreme Court on Monday denied the Justice Department's request for an injunction that would have forced California officials to set aside mail ballots from about 20,000 people the federal government says are not U.S. citizens. The order was one line, unsigned, with no noted dissents. An appeals court had already turned down the request.

The administration's position is that the ballots belong to suspected noncitizens and should be separated. Neither the order nor the filings summarized here resolve whether any of those 20,000 voters are ineligible. The ruling denies the specific remedy the Justice Department sought.

In Alaska, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason on Sunday dismissed a suit that sought to bar the state from certifying its Senate results. The administration alleged Democrats conspired to put a "spoiler" candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot to draw votes from Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Gleason called the request "infeasible."

Trump repeated the claim Monday, calling the race a "fraudulent election" and saying Democrats put a "fake Dan Sullivan" on the ballot.

Separately, Maricopa County, Arizona, officials say they raised a problem with the Justice Department. One of its election monitors sent to the Arizona primaries, David Levin, pleaded guilty in 2016 to a misdemeanor for hacking Florida county and state election websites, court documents show. County assistant manager Zach Schira said DOJ told the county it will not send felons or anyone convicted of election-related crimes in the future. Federal monitors are expected in all 50 states Tuesday, and the department says they will not interfere with voting.

Senate picture shifts

The Cook Political Report issued its final ratings Monday, finding Democrat Abdul El-Sayed favored to win the Michigan Senate race. With that change, Cook now has Democrats favored to win a Senate majority.

Michigan is also where the Democratic side is fracturing. Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday. The two Democrats clashed sharply over U.S. support for Israel, which El-Sayed opposes. Rogers and other Republicans praised the move.

Rep. Debbie Dingell told CBS News the decision is "galvanizing many communities." "You're seeing a backlash," she said, adding that Black pastors had asked her, "Who said she represented us?"

Trump's approval rating has fallen to a level not seen before a midterm since Harry Truman in 1946, according to TIME. Most generic ballot polls favor Democrats, and polls in Texas and South Carolina show Republicans struggling to hold their usual margins.

Money and the farm vote

OpenSecrets projects federal spending for the 2025-2026 cycle at about $12 billion, the most expensive midterm on record. The Wesleyan Media Project puts ad spending across House, Senate and governor races at about $7.1 billion, with roughly $1.4 billion of it between Oct. 12 and Oct. 25.

The administration has also made more than $15 billion in promises to agriculture producers in recent weeks, according to The Associated Press. More than half is an $8 billion one-time payment for farmers hit by diesel costs. The USDA said it will release details this month and has not said when the money will reach farmers. AAA put diesel at $6.32 a gallon Friday, 70% above a year ago.

Kansas State's Gregg Ibendahl estimated the payments would "more than cover the increase in fuel costs." Whether the money moves votes in farm states where Republican seats are now competitive is unclear.

Polls open Tuesday, Nov. 3. Michigan's Senate race is now the contest Cook's forecast for Senate control rests on.