57 Million Ballots Already Cast Before Midterms as ABC Rates 14 House Races Toss-Ups

The early-vote total is in, and it is large. As of Monday afternoon, Nov. 2, more than 57 million Americans had cast ballots ahead of Tuesday's midterms, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. Nearly 32 million voted early in person and more than 25 million voted by mail.

The 2022 midterms drew nearly 46 million early votes. The number says nothing yet about which party benefits.

The House: 14 races on the knife's edge

All 435 House seats are on the ballot. ABC News rates 14 of them as toss-ups, and Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats to take control.

A few of them:

• Alabama 2: Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques in a newly drawn district. The Supreme Court allowed Alabama to reinstate a 2023 map that a federal court had blocked. Trump would have carried the new district by 14 points in 2024. Figures is counting on turnout among Black voters, about 40% of the voting-age population.
• Colorado 5: Republican Rep. Jeff Crank faces Democrat Jessica Killin, an Army veteran and former chief of staff to then-second gentleman Doug Emhoff. Trump won the military-heavy district by about 9 points. Crank supports the Iran war but says Trump should have sought congressional approval.
• Iowa 2: An open seat after Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate run. Trump won it by 10 points, but ABC says the economic effects of the Iran war and tariffs on this farm-heavy district have made it competitive. Democrat Lindsey James faces 29-year-old Republican Joe Mitchell.
• Florida 22 and Kentucky 6: Both are open seats. In Florida, two political newcomers, Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar, are running in a newly drawn district. In Kentucky, Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado for the seat Rep. Andy Barr is leaving to run for Senate.

The Senate math

Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, and 35 seats are up. Fox News's final Power Rankings call the chamber a toss-up, with Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans ahead in 47. Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, all Republican-held, are rated toss-ups.

Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, Republicans need to hold 50 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four for a 51-49 majority. CBC News's analysis says that means flipping at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas.

Fox's forecast puts the range at up to 54 Democratic seats in a blue wave or up to 52 Republican seats on a good GOP night.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson. Both come from Aroostook County, which leans Republican. Jackson told CBS News he doesn't know that he will win there, but "I feel good."

Trump's closing argument

Trump said he will appear on Sean Hannity's Fox News show tonight, Nov. 2, at 9 p.m. ET. On Truth Social he claimed "25 Trillion Dollars of Growth and Wealth" created since his election and praised tax breaks on tips, overtime and Social Security. That figure is his own claim.

On the trail last week he said a Republican Congress means "we will continue to put America first every single day." He added that if Democrats win, "this country will go to hell."

Fox reports Republicans face a difficult climate: persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular Iran war, and Trump's increasingly negative approval ratings. The party in power also traditionally loses seats in midterm years.

In Texas, Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, who advises the party's Senate and governor candidates, says Hispanic voters are frustrated over the economy and immigration policy. "There's a Hispanic hurricane coming," he said. Republicans counter that Democratic enthusiasm is still muted. Trump won a majority of Texas Hispanics in 2024.

What Democrats say they would do

Democratic lawmakers have laid out their agenda. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on House Oversight, ranks Trump family corruption first. Rep. Jamie Raskin has requested information on the business dealings of Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. Rep. Jason Crow says he will start with the Pentagon and the war.

The Justice Department's handling of the Epstein files is another likely target. The department released about 3.5 million of the roughly 6 million pages it holds, saying the rest were duplicates, and it missed a legal deadline. Journalist Katie Phang has sued over the release.

A Democratic House would also face pressure from its base to impeach Trump a third time. A Democratic Senate could block or delay appointments, including judges.

Statehouses and 2028

The conservative group Honest Elections Project Action warns that Democrats could win full control of government in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All five are presidential battlegrounds with 61 electoral votes. Trump won all five in 2024.

The group says Virginia's Democratic trifecta expanded ranked-choice voting, relaxed mail-ballot standards and joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It calculates that new trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona would bring the compact to 267 electoral votes, short of the 270 it needs to take effect. Wisconsin or Nevada would finish the job, the group says.

Tuesday night will show whether Democrats can find two Senate wins in double-digit Trump states. The House math is far easier for them. The same ballots will also decide 36 governorships and 145 statewide ballot measures.