Trump Approval Falls to Record Lows in Four Major Polls, Between 31% and 36%, Two Weeks Before Midterms

Since the Feb. 28 launch of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, Trump's approval numbers have slid, and the final weeks of polling before the Nov. 3 midterms have produced the lowest readings of his political career.

The numbers

The New York Times/Siena poll, conducted Oct. 12 to 19 among 3,494 voters, found 36% of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance and 59% disapprove. The margin of error is 1.9 points. The Times said it is the lowest approval in any Times/Siena poll. Among all registered voters, approval was 34%.

CNN's poll by SSRS, taken Oct. 15 to 18 among 1,701 people, put approval at 32% and disapproval at 67%. The margin of error is 2.9 points. CNN described the result as historically low.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Monday, Oct. 19, found 31% approval. That is the lowest in either of his presidential terms. It surveyed 1,679 adults, including 1,279 registered voters.

The Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll, also released Monday, found 33% approval, a record low. Seven in 10 respondents said gasoline was becoming unaffordable.

The polling average from Decision Desk HQ was less dire as of Wednesday morning, Oct. 21: 39.2% approve, 59.1% disapprove. The individual polls differ in population (adults, registered voters, likely voters) and field dates, which accounts for part of the spread.

The economy and the war

In the Times/Siena survey, 69% disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living and 65% disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Nearly three-quarters disapprove on gas prices. Three-quarters rate the economy as fair or poor.

Reuters/Ipsos found 68% disapprove of his handling of the economy, including 37% of self-identified Republicans. Respondents picked Democrats over Republicans as the better economic managers, 40% to 33%.

The prices behind those numbers are measurable. The U.S. average for a gallon of regular was about $4.26 on Wednesday morning, up from roughly $3.05 a year ago. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid the war. Inflation rose to 3.7% last month.

Trump promised in 2024 to lower everyday costs, keep inflation low and keep the U.S. from starting more wars abroad. The war is now nearly eight months old.

The ballot test

Times/Siena found likely voters prefer Democratic House candidates over Republicans by 11 points, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. Reuters/Ipsos found Democrats ahead 47% to 35% among registered voters on the generic ballot, a 12-point lead.

An NBC poll released Sunday, Oct. 18, found 55% would vote Democratic if the election were held that day, and 71% said the country is on the wrong track.

More than two-thirds of independents disapprove of Trump, according to Times/Siena. White voters without a college degree, a group that helped drive his 2016 and 2024 wins, split 48% approve to 46% disapprove.

The poll also found a flip on party image. A majority of likely voters now see Democrats as the party of the working class, a reversal from 2022. Voters also rated Democrats as more likely to keep their promises.

What the polls don't settle

A national generic-ballot lead does not decide individual districts. Democrats are still facing a massive financial disadvantage in competitive races in Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska and Iowa. Some Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves from Trump, while he has kept campaigning for MAGA-aligned candidates, including a rally on Oct. 17 in Highland Heights, Kentucky.

The Guardian asked the White House for comment on the Times/Siena numbers.

The next test is the election itself. Voters decide control of the House and Senate on Nov. 3, and the open question is whether gas prices near $4.26 and an 11-to-12-point generic-ballot gap translate into seats in those contested districts.