Trump Tells Kentucky Crowd His Second Term Is 'Much More Powerful' as Midterms Near

President Donald Trump told supporters in Northern Kentucky this past weekend that his second term is a different animal. "I don't think I could have done this in my first term," he said. "This is a much more powerful term. I can do stuff that's unbelievable."

He added that big companies wouldn't take his calls the first time around, but "now they kiss my ass."

The midterms are less than two weeks away.

A president campaigning on his own power

Trump's pitch to voters is that he gets things done without waiting for anyone. His examples include renaming the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.

NPR also listed a Justice Department raid on a congresswoman's home, the removal of trees in Washington against a judge's wishes, and Russia deals that NPR said conflict with congressionally passed sanctions. Earlier this month the administration announced investigations of nine universities, including Harvard and Yale, over allegations that they brought in international students to undercut American wages.

Tevi Troy, a presidential historian who worked in the George W. Bush White House, says Trump inherited an already-strong presidency. Congress, Troy said, has been giving away its own power for roughly 25 years.

Bush used signing statements to reinterpret bills. Obama said he had a pen and meant to use it. Troy's point is that Trump uses the inherited power differently: to go after opponents, "woke" and DEI programs at universities, and the media. "He doesn't have an ideology, he has a methodology, and the methodology is unilateralism," Troy said.

Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist who helped run Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, called Trump a brawler. "He's the president, he's the boss, and he's not going to be restrained by traditions or aides that may say you should hold back," Williams said.

Frank Sesno, a former CNN Washington bureau chief who now teaches at George Washington University, said that if the administration doesn't like a person's or organization's point of view, Trump officials are "prepared to take the gloves off." He said that could play out in court, through contracts, by revoking security clearances or by launching investigations.

Conservatives who want a smaller federal government should notice that part. Troy's account is that Congress handed over this authority over a quarter century. Those powers will be there for the next president too.

The campaign trail

On Monday, Oct. 19, Trump rallied in Kansas for Sen. Roger Marshall. He went after Reps. Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by name.

"A vote for any Democrat this year is a vote to let that small and dangerous group of extremists hold all of us hostage in America," Trump said. He added: "In 15 days, we're going to reelect Roger Marshall, one of the greatest, and we're going to defeat the communists, the jihadists, and the corrupt anti-American lunatics once and for all."

Breitbart counted stops in Texas (twice), Oklahoma, Ohio, Nebraska and Alabama over a recent eight-day stretch. Trump has told Republicans to vote as if he were on the ballot.

Trump 2024 campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita says that plays to the GOP's advantage. He argues Republicans have a bigger pool of low-propensity voters who show up for Trump in presidential years but skip midterms. He also claims polls are "contrived" because they oversample Democrats. That is LaCivita's assertion. No poll has been shown to prove it.

What the polls showed

The numbers the GOP is arguing against look rough. RealClearPolitics' generic ballot average, as cited by the Daily Wire earlier this month, had Democrats ahead 51.2% to 42.7%, an 8.5-point margin.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and can lose no more than three seats without losing control. The House margin is 218-214.

In that same snapshot, former Gov. Roy Cooper led former RNC chairman Michael Whatley by 9 points in North Carolina, and GOP spending groups pulled out. That money is going to Kansas, where Marshall is in a single-digit race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton.

In Texas, a New York Times/Siena poll had Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown led Sen. Jon Husted 47% to 44%. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Sen. Susan Collins by 0.1 point. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek led Rep. Ashley Hinson by less than a point.

Co/Efficient polls showed Republicans slightly ahead in Iowa, Alaska, Maine and Ohio and tied in New Hampshire and Michigan.

Michigan

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers by 3.5 points in the RCP average. Former President Barack Obama is set to campaign with El-Sayed in Detroit later this month.

Rogers, speaking at a Sean Hannity town hall Monday, called El-Sayed a "manufactured candidate" with a "pattern of deception." He accused him of supporting defunding the police and the Green New Deal. Rogers also said his volunteers are approaching 6 million doors knocked.

El-Sayed told ABC News that Israel is not "actually our friend." He described it as a country that "takes your money and pushes you into wars you shouldn't be fighting."

What is still open

The measurable question is whether the GOP's turnout theory beats the polling. More than a million Americans had already voted when those polling averages were published, and early voting continues.

On executive power, NPR put the question plainly: it is no longer how much Trump can accomplish through executive action, but how far the president can go and what, if anything, will constrain him. Election Day will show whether voters hand Democrats the power to try.