Three Candidates, One Stunned Establishment

A UC Berkeley/LA Times poll released May 28 shows Bass at 26%, Nithya Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%. All three fall within the margin of error. In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans 4-to-1, according to Time magazine, the numbers signal major trouble for City Hall.

This race was supposed to be boring. Bass vs. Raman, a progressive squabble between a moderate incumbent and a left-wing council member. Spencer Pratt — the villain from MTV's The Hills — was supposed to be a punchline.

He is not a punchline.

The Money Tells the Real Story

Between April 19 and May 15, Pratt raised $2.7 million, according to ZeroHedge's analysis of campaign finance data. Bass raised $282,000 over that same stretch. Bass has been fundraising since 2024, and her total haul is approximately $2.8 million. Pratt nearly matched her entire two-year total in under a month.

Cash on hand right now: Pratt at roughly $1.42 million, Bass at $1.32 million. Pratt has more money in the bank than the sitting mayor of Los Angeles.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Getting Wrong

Most national outlets — Time, The Guardian, NBC News — are framing this story around one question: is Trump's support a poison pill for Pratt?

That's a real angle. It's also a distraction from the bigger picture.

An incumbent mayor of a major American city is broke, bleeding poll numbers, and scrambling for endorsements five days before a primary. Gov. Gavin Newsom issued his endorsement of Bass on Thursday, May 29 — not six months ago, not at the start of the race. Five days out. The timing suggests weakness rather than strength.

CNN and MSNBC aren't leading with "Why is Karen Bass so weak?" They're leading with "Trump backs Spencer Pratt." The framing choice reflects media priorities.

Pratt's Smart Play on Trump

Pratt shut down the Trump association fast. Told NBC News anchor Tom Llamas directly: "I don't need anyone's endorsement but mothers'. That's who's getting me elected."

He went further: "My race is a local race. I don't care what's going on in national politics, in other states. I am running for a local position."

When Llamas kept pushing on Trump, Pratt called out the framing itself. "This, this right here, what you're doing, you having this conversation is what's destroyed local elections."

It was a sharp answer from someone the media expects to be stupid.

Trump, for his part, gave Pratt the least committal non-endorsement possible. "I'd like to see him do well. He's a character," Trump told reporters. "I assume he probably supports me." That's not an endorsement. That's a president reading tabloids.

The Wildfire Origin Story

Pratt's political career started when his house burned down. The January 2025 Palisades wildfires destroyed his family's home. He spent months after that publicly attacking Karen Bass and Gavin Newsom online, according to NBC News and The Guardian. The anger was real. It resonated.

Bass's response to the wildfires — her absence, her management, the pace of recovery — has been a central attack line throughout the campaign. Pratt hammered it. Voters in communities like Baldwin Village, where he held a community barbecue Saturday drawing an estimated 150 residents according to the NY Post, say they've been living with government failure for years.

"They all feel disillusioned and demoralized with city leadership," Pratt told The Post. "They find a glimmer of hope in seeing somebody running who hates and distrusts politicians as much as they do."

Bass's Actual Record Gets Buried

Newsom's endorsement claimed an "18% decline in homelessness" in Los Angeles under Bass, according to the ZeroHedge report quoting Newsom directly. If that's true, Bass should be running on that claim. Instead, she's not dominating this race. Either the numbers are being measured in a way that flatters Bass, or voters aren't buying them, or both. The media should be interrogating that claim hard. Most aren't.

What Happens June 2

If nobody hits 50% on Tuesday — which is almost certain with three viable candidates splitting the vote — the top two advance to a November 3 runoff.

In a one-on-one race, Bass versus Pratt in a deep-blue city would likely favor Bass, according to Time magazine. The Trump association that might be helping Pratt turn out anti-establishment voters in the primary could crater him in a general electorate that, according to Zev Yaroslavsky of UCLA Luskin's School of Public Affairs, views Trump as the most unpopular figure in Los Angeles.

But Raman could also advance instead of Pratt. In which case Bass faces a progressive challenger — a different problem entirely.

The Current Landscape

Karen Bass is a weakened incumbent in a one-party city who couldn't raise serious money, needed a governor's last-minute endorsement, and is polling below 30% heading into her own primary.

Spencer Pratt is a 42-year-old reality TV personality with NO governing experience who has more cash on hand than the mayor and is within the margin of error in every recent poll.

However this ends — primary night, runoff, or November — the results reflect voter exhaustion with Democratic governance in one of America's largest cities. Los Angeles residents have been stepping over tent cities, watching the homelessness crisis worsen, and living through catastrophic wildfire failures for years. The polling numbers suggest they've moved beyond acceptance.