Spain Adds New Case, Total Hits 11 as Second American Shows Symptoms and Last Passengers Leave MV Hondius

The Ship Is Gone. The Outbreak Isn't.

The MV Hondius departed Tenerife for the Netherlands on Monday. The last six passengers — four Australians, one Briton, one New Zealander — disembarked at Granadilla port before it left. The vessel is physically gone. The virus is not.

As of Monday, according to AP News, the WHO has logged 11 total cases tied to the ship. That's up from 9 confirmed and 2 suspected just days ago. Three people are dead.

New Cases Keep Coming

Spain's health ministry confirmed a new case Monday: a passenger quarantining in Madrid provisionally tested positive. That's on top of cases already reported in the US, France, the Netherlands, Germany, South Africa, Switzerland, and Saint Helena, according to BBC News.

France's situation is deteriorating. French Health Minister Stéphanie Rist confirmed a woman is isolating in Paris with worsening health — she was previously reported on an artificial lung — with 22 contacts now traced.

The US isn't in the clear either. The US health department said a second American national on Sunday's repatriation flight has shown mild symptoms. Both American passengers traveled home in biocontainment units, according to BBC News.

The UK's Precautionary Play

The UK flew its passengers home from Tenerife to Manchester Airport on a chartered flight Sunday. Twenty British nationals, one German UK resident, and one Japanese passenger are now at Arrowe Park Hospital in Merseyside, according to BBC News. They're 72 hours into observation with regular testing.

After discharge, they're looking at up to 45 days of self-isolation at home.

On top of that, the UK Health Security Agency is now flying 10 more people from the British Overseas Territories of Saint Helena and Ascension Island to England — as a precautionary measure. None are symptomatic. Prof. Robin May, UKHSA Chief Scientific Officer, said Monday the evacuees were "healthy and asymptomatic" but the NHS in England was better equipped to monitor them if symptoms develop.

Public Health Minister Sharon Hodgson said the risk to the public remains low.

The Contact Tracing Problem

32 passengers disembarked at Saint Helena on April 24 — weeks before anyone knew there was an outbreak. All 30 who went ashore have been contact traced by UKHSA, according to Wikipedia's outbreak tracker.

Contact tracing 30 people who scattered to different countries isn't the same as finding everyone those 30 people then interacted with over the following weeks. The Andes virus — the specific strain on this ship — is the only known hantavirus that spreads human-to-human. Every other hantavirus needs a rodent. This one doesn't.

The WHO has been careful to note that human-to-human spread requires "close, intimate contact" and is rare. Close contact on a weeks-long expedition cruise is exactly the environment where sustained exposure happens.

The CDC Called This a Level 3

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classified this outbreak as a "Level 3" emergency response, according to Wikipedia's outbreak tracker. That's the highest tier. The CDC is treating this with the same seriousness as outbreaks of Ebola or pandemic flu threats.

Two Americans tested positive. One had mild symptoms. The CDC's Level 3 classification suggests the severity being assigned to the outbreak behind the scenes.

The Numbers Don't Add Up Yet

There's a gap between what the WHO officially counts and what individual countries are reporting. WHO says 11 total. But add up the confirmed cases from the US (2), France (1 confirmed critical), Spain (1 provisional), the Netherlands (ongoing), South Africa (1 British national, critical), Germany and Switzerland — and the picture is messier than the headline number suggests.

The incubation period runs up to six weeks. The ship launched April 1. We are still inside the window for every person who boarded that ship.

What This Means

If you weren't on the MV Hondius or in close physical contact with someone who was, your risk is effectively zero.

"Low pandemic risk" is not the same as "this is under control." Three people are dead. A French woman is on an artificial lung. A second American just developed symptoms. Countries across Europe, North America, and beyond are scrambling to find people who got off a ship weeks ago and have been living their normal lives since.

The Andes virus has a six-week clock. It started ticking April 1. There are roughly two weeks left in that window.