SpaceX's IPO Performance Has Wall Street Asking Whether Anthropic and OpenAI Can Replicate It

Since SpaceX went public on June 12 with a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, the conversation on Wall Street has shifted from the debut itself to what it means for the IPO pipeline behind it.

The stock's initial run was dramatic. Shares hit 53% above the $150 opening price within three trading days. That surge didn't hold. As of Wednesday's close, SpaceX sits about 17% above its opening price, according to CNBC. A solid return by any measure, but a long way from the early euphoria.

The 'Blueprint' Question

Nick Ryder, chief investment officer at Kathmere Capital Management, told CNBC's ETF Edge this week that SpaceX could become the model that Anthropic and OpenAI follow to their own public debuts. "It would not surprise me at all to see a similar dynamic play out with some of these [IPOs] set to come in the months ahead," Ryder said.

His caveat is the important part. "We've been in a pretty historic two- or three-month rally for the equity market which was feeding into [SpaceX]," Ryder told CNBC. "When these other mega IPOs eventually come to market the environment might be different, and so it's really hard to predict how it will be."

That's an honest read. SpaceX didn't pop because of some structural genius in how the deal was structured. It popped because a long equity rally had built up demand, and the company had a brand that retail and institutional investors both understood. Neither of those conditions is guaranteed to exist when Anthropic or OpenAI finally file.

Index Inclusion as the Real Accelerant

Arne Noack, FTSE Russell's head of equity and multi-asset indices for the Americas, pushes back on the idea that SpaceX itself is the template. He argues the index machinery is the actual story.

"As index providers, [we] have put in place a blueprint that is clearly visible for anyone, meaning there is a fast-track eligibility. If you meet certain thresholds, you're potentially eligible for index inclusion," Noack told CNBC.

SpaceX's trajectory backs him up. The company entered the Russell 1000 almost immediately after its debut. It is set to be added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 6, after market close. That kind of index velocity forces passive funds to buy the stock regardless of sentiment, creating a structural demand floor that has nothing to do with retail enthusiasm or brand recognition.

For any future mega-cap IPO that clears the size threshold, the same mechanism applies automatically. That's a genuine, repeatable advantage, unlike the specific market mood that greeted SpaceX in mid-June.

The Case for Skepticism

The strongest counterargument to the SpaceX-as-blueprint thesis deserves a fair hearing. Anthropic and OpenAI are AI software companies with very different financial profiles than SpaceX. SpaceX has Starlink, a revenue-generating satellite internet business, layered under the aerospace brand. It had something to point at beyond hype.

Anthropics and OpenAI's core revenue streams face intensifying competition. If either company comes to market in a weaker equity environment, or if the AI-investment narrative has cooled by then, the gap between SpaceX's reception and theirs could be significant.

Ryder acknowledged this directly. His point is that the SpaceX playbook is a possibility, not a guarantee, and market conditions at the time of filing will matter as much as company quality.

What's Actually New Here

The most concrete near-term event is the Nasdaq-100 inclusion scheduled for July 6. Passive funds tracking that index will be required buyers at whatever price the stock is trading when the addition takes effect. That mechanical demand is the clearest, most sourced thing anyone can say about SpaceX's stock in the coming days, and it's the kind of structural feature that future mega-cap IPOs will be watching closely when they decide how to time their own filings.