Since the amended S-1 filings earlier this week detailed lock-up structures, the xAI tie-up, and employee share set-asides, the SpaceX IPO has moved from paperwork toward pricing. According to Reuters, SpaceX is targeting $135 per share for a listing expected June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, with final terms not yet confirmed.

At that target price, the implied valuation would land at approximately $1.75 trillion. That would slot SpaceX between Microsoft and Apple on day one — larger than Amazon, larger than Saudi Aramco at its peak.

The Numbers Behind the Hype

For context on how we got here: SpaceX executed a 5-for-1 stock split on May 4, 2026, per the BitMEX S-1 breakdown. Before that split, the December 2025 tender offer priced shares at roughly $421, implying an $800 billion valuation. The $135 post-split target price represents more than a doubling of that valuation in roughly six months.

Revenue for 2025 came in at $18.7 billion, up 33% from $14.1 billion in 2024, according to the S-1 filing as analyzed by BitMEX. Starlink alone generated $11.4 billion — 61% of total revenue. On adjusted EBITDA, the company posted $6.6 billion in profit for 2025, per reporting from The Information.

The Loss Column Is Not Small

Despite that EBITDA figure, SpaceX posted a GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion for full-year 2025. Then in Q1 2026 alone, the company burned through another $4.28 billion in a single quarter. Accumulated deficit: $41.3 billion.

The driver is AI. SpaceX disclosed that xAI and AI operations lost more than $6 billion in 2025 and burned an additional $2.5 billion in Q1 2026. The company is now reportedly evaluating in-house GPU manufacturing to reduce those costs. Whether that fixes the problem or adds another capital-intensive sinkhole is an open question.

Most media coverage focuses on the valuation record and Musk's ambitions. Few outlets have led with the fact that this company lost $4.28 billion in three months.

The Deal Structure

According to Reuters, this is structured as an all-primary IPO — meaning the proceeds would go to the company, not to existing shareholders cashing out. For a capital-hungry business, that structure makes sense. Musk and early investors would not be immediately dumping on retail buyers.

Goldman Sachs is set to lead a syndicate of 21 underwriters. Retail investors are earmarked for 30% of the float — three times the typical allocation for a deal this size, according to BitMEX's S-1 analysis. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX planned to set IPO terms as early as Wednesday.

Elon Musk would retain 42% equity and 85% of voting power. Buyers of IPO shares would be getting economic exposure with essentially no governance say. If Musk wants to redirect resources to Mars, dig a tunnel, or buy another social media platform, public shareholders cannot stop him.

Valuation in Context

A $1.75 trillion valuation on $18.7 billion in revenue would represent a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 93x. For comparison, Nvidia — a company actually printing money — trades around 20-25x revenue. SpaceX would be priced at roughly four times Nvidia's revenue multiple while losing billions per quarter on AI bets.

The bull case is Starlink's growth trajectory, the launch monopoly SpaceX effectively holds in U.S. government contracts, and the long-term optionality of Mars colonization. Those are real. Starlink serving 8 million customers in 150-plus countries is a genuine business, not vaporware.

The bear case is equally real: Musk controls the votes, AI is bleeding cash at an accelerating rate, the accumulated deficit is $41.3 billion, and buyers would have ZERO recourse if management priorities shift.

The Record Context

If SpaceX prices at $135 and raises at the $1.75 trillion target, it would be the largest IPO in U.S. history by valuation at listing. The previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, listed at roughly $1.7 trillion in 2019. Saudi Aramco actually made money. A lot of it.

Bloomberg reported on how the SpaceX deal stacks up against historical mega-IPOs — but their full analysis sits behind a paywall. What we know from Reuters and the S-1 data: this deal is massive in scale, massive in the gap between EBITDA optics and GAAP reality, and massive in the retail allocation share.

Investor Considerations

If you receive an allocation through your brokerage on June 12, understand what you would actually be buying: a piece of a genuine infrastructure company with a real competitive moat, controlled entirely by one man who has 85% of the votes, burning through billions per quarter on AI, and priced at a valuation that assumes everything goes right for the next decade.

Starlink is real. The launch business is real. The losses are also real.

Price accordingly.