SpaceX IPO Grows to $85.7 Billion After Greenshoe Exercise, Shares Up 6% Monday

Since SpaceX priced at $135 per share and began trading on the Nasdaq on June 12, the deal has only gotten larger.

Underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Monday exercised the full "greenshoe" overallotment option, purchasing an additional 83.3 million shares, according to CNBC. That pushed the total capital raised to $85.7 billion, up from the initial $75 billion. The overallotment alone is bigger than nearly every tech IPO ever completed on its own.

Shares climbed more than 6% today on top of Friday's 19% debut gain. The stock closed Friday at around $161, giving SpaceX a market capitalization north of $2 trillion. As of today's session, SpaceX has eclipsed TSMC's valuation, according to TechCrunch.

Where the money goes

SpaceX has been specific about how it intends to deploy the capital. According to CNBC, roughly $20 billion will retire debt tied to legacy loans connected to X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter) and xAI, both of which were folded into SpaceX before the IPO. Additional funds are earmarked for AI compute infrastructure, launch facilities, and Starlink expansion.

Elon Musk has also pitched space-based orbital data centers as a core use case, framing them as a solution to AI's growing power demands. CNBC noted that the technology remains unproven and carries significant operational risks.

On Sunday, Musk posted on X that SpaceX "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. For context, the company reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025 and lost nearly $5 billion that same year.

Who's buying, and what they're saying

Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital, bought an additional $1 billion in SpaceX shares during the IPO, lifting his firm's total stake to roughly $25 billion, according to CNBC. Baron first invested in SpaceX in 2017 when the company was valued at under $22 billion and has participated in 27 funding rounds since. Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Monday, he said: "I think we're going to make hundreds of billions of dollars."

Baron said he bought primarily to avoid dilution as new shares entered the market. SpaceX represents 33% of assets in the $10.4 billion Baron Partners Fund as of March 31.

Hancock Prospecting also committed over $1 billion to the IPO, as covered in prior reporting.

The valuation debate is real

The strongest case for caution comes from the analysts, and it deserves a direct look.

CFRA initiated coverage Friday with a "sell" rating and a 12-month price target of $115, which would represent a nearly 29% decline from Friday's close. CFRA cited the company's "extremely ambitious growth strategy, elevated valuation expectations, and significant capital intensity." SpaceX's capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 totaled $10.1 billion, versus $4.1 billion in the same period last year, with the majority flowing into AI.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, in a note dated June 8, valued the stock at $63 per share and called it "overvalued." Paulina Roszkowska, a finance lecturer at Bayes Business School, told CNBC that SpaceX has made "a lot of promises" but warned that at some point those promises need to produce cash flow. "Aside from those phrases about data centers in the orbit, which are high promises, if you are asking for 70, 80 billion contribution, I think that you owe investors a little bit more than poetry," she said.

A company that lost $5 billion in 2025, now valued at over $2 trillion, is priced for a degree of execution that has no historical precedent in aerospace or tech. Musk's $1 trillion revenue target for 2030 would require SpaceX to grow revenue by more than 50x in roughly five years.

The perp market angle

One new dimension surfaced by the IPO: blockchain-based perpetual futures markets operated by platforms like Hyperliquid and Binance provided a form of price discovery before the stock ever traded. According to CNBC, more than 7 million SpaceX perps traded on Hyperliquid on Friday for over $1.2 billion in volume. The prices tracked closely with where the stock ultimately opened and traded.

The CFTC recently approved prediction market operator Kalshi to trade bitcoin perps, a move that contributed to share price declines for CME, Cboe, and Nasdaq earlier this month. The SpaceX debut added another data point in that direction. When the perp market prices a deal this accurately ahead of the traditional open, it raises a structural question about whether legacy exchanges can maintain their gatekeeper role.

What's unresolved

The greenshoe exercise is complete, so the capital raise is closed. What remains open is whether SpaceX's capital expenditure trajectory, now running at $10.1 billion per quarter and accelerating, can be sustained without further equity dilution or debt issuance. CFO reporting, quarterly earnings under SEC oversight, and the company's first annual report as a public company will be the next real tests of the numbers behind the promises.