Since this publication first covered SpaceX's IPO ambitions and the S&P 500 fast-track debate on June 4, the index question has been settled — and not in Elon Musk's favor.

S&P Holds Firm

On Thursday, June 4, S&P Dow Jones Indices released a formal statement: no changes to the S&P 500's eligibility requirements. Full stop.

The rules stay exactly as they are. Companies need a 12-month seasoning period after going public. They need to meet minimum public float requirements. And critically — they need to be profitable under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, both in their most recent quarter and cumulatively across the prior four quarters.

SpaceX passes NONE of those tests right now.

According to CNBC, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, even as revenue climbed 33% to $18.67 billion. The company has never turned a GAAP profit. It's in SpaceX's own S-1 SEC filing.

What S&P Actually Said

The official S&P Dow Jones statement was direct: "Exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization."

Translation: being enormous doesn't buy you a shortcut.

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, put it plainly, per CNBC: "Making exceptions because companies are so large and have been private so long yet are still not profitable, didn't make a great deal of sense."

Hard to argue with that.

The Money at Stake

This isn't just procedural housekeeping. According to ZeroHedge, citing BNP estimates, SpaceX's inclusion in the S&P 500 would have triggered approximately $13.4 billion in passive inflows — money that index funds tracking the S&P 500 would have been legally obligated to deploy into SpaceX shares.

That's now delayed by at least 12 months after the IPO, and realistically longer, given the profitability requirement. There's no timeline on when — or whether — SpaceX crosses into GAAP profitability.

The Nasdaq Caved. S&P Didn't.

The S&P's decision puts it in direct contrast with its competitors, who already blinked.

The Nasdaq 100 changed its rules to allow newly listed megacaps to join in as little as 15 trading days. FTSE Russell went even further — just five trading days. According to Engadget, those rule changes mean SpaceX will enter those indexes almost immediately after its IPO, forcing Nasdaq 100 index funds to buy a "sizeable portion" of publicly available SpaceX shares right out of the gate.

Critics, as noted by Engadget, argue this fast-entry structure benefits early investors and harms retail buyers who get exposure through index funds without choosing it.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart told Engadget he was "genuinely surprised" by S&P's decision — but acknowledged: "S&P is the market leader and they can buck the trend."

Two Views, One Blind Spot

Left-leaning outlets like Engadget framed the S&P decision primarily around pension fund protection — the "your retirement account might be forced into SpaceX" angle. Right-leaning ZeroHedge focused almost entirely on the financial mechanics — the $13.4 billion delay in passive inflows and what it means for SpaceX's post-IPO stock trajectory.

Both analyses overlooked the core issue: this is fundamentally a story about index integrity. The S&P 500 is the benchmark that trillions of dollars in institutional capital tracks. Bending the rules for one company — however large — would have set a precedent that corrodes the entire point of rules-based indexing.

S&P's decision wasn't anti-Musk. It was pro-market structure.

The Valuation Question Nobody Wants to Answer

Research firm Morningstar, cited by Engadget, called SpaceX "significantly overvalued" at its targeted $1.75 trillion valuation — rating its true value at $780 billion. That's less than half the IPO price.

Morningstar specifically flagged xAI as a drag on SpaceX's profitable divisions like Starlink, given brutal competition from OpenAI, Gemini, and Anthropic.

If Morningstar is even half right, retail investors buying into the IPO hype are walking into a potential buzz saw.

What This Means for Regular People

If you own a standard S&P 500 index fund — through your 401(k), your IRA, or a brokerage account — you will NOT be automatically exposed to SpaceX anytime soon. S&P held the line.

If you own a Nasdaq 100 ETF, like the QQQ, you're going to own SpaceX stock very shortly after the IPO, whether you want to or not.

And if you're thinking about buying SpaceX shares directly at a $1.75 trillion valuation for a company losing nearly $5 billion a year — Morningstar thinks you're paying more than double what it's worth.