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Software Stocks Break Out, Berkshire Gets Left Behind, and the AI Rally Hits Its Most Dangerous Phase Yet

The Story Has Moved. Here's Where It Stands Now.
When we last covered this rally, the headline was Micron and SK Hynix crossing $1 trillion in market cap on the same day. That was the memory chip story. This week, the AI rally cracked open into entirely new territory.
Software stocks. Server makers. The "SaaSpocalypse" narrative just got torched.
Snowflake's Best Day Ever — And What It Actually Means
Snowflake posted a 36% single-day gain Thursday — its best day in company history, according to CNBC. The catalyst: the company beat first-quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue estimates, boosted guidance, and announced a $6 billion compute deal with Amazon.
Finance chief Brian Robins told analysts that AI tools like Cortex Code are driving a "step function change" in AI revenue potential. The company added 616 net new customers and is guiding for $1.415 to $1.420 billion in second-quarter product revenue, above the $1.37 billion analysts expected.
All year, Wall Street has been pricing in a "SaaSpocalypse" — the fear that AI tools would eat traditional software-as-a-service revenues alive. Snowflake's report contradicts that thesis, at least for now. ServiceNow and Oracle jumped over 6%. Palantir gained 8%. Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, and Atlassian each added at least 3%.
Salesforce bucked the trend with flat-to-negative movement on weak guidance. But the broad software selloff narrative just took a serious hit.
Dell Surged 43% in Five Days
Dell Technologies didn't just beat estimates — it obliterated them. According to CNBC, Dell reported $43.84 billion in revenue, against analyst expectations of $35.43 billion polled by LSEG. Revenue grew nearly 88% year over year — its fastest growth since returning to public markets in late 2018.
Friday's single-day move of 33% was the largest one-day gain in Dell's history. For the full week: up 43%.
Barclays analyst Tim Long reiterated an overweight rating and raised his price target to $550, implying another 31% upside from Friday's close. Dell's RSI finished the week at 90, according to CNBC's screener — which technically means it's the most overbought large-cap stock in the market right now.
Overbought doesn't mean wrong. It means fragile.
Micron: Up 29% in a Week, RSI at 78
Micron's 29% weekly gain — detailed in CNBC's overbought stock analysis — pushed its RSI to 78. Anything above 70 signals overbought conditions. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his price target to $1,625 on the stock, which was trading at roughly half that level. Arcuri wrote that "the market will start to put a more 'normal' multiple on the stock" as AI drives structural changes across the memory sector.
That's a 67% implied upside baked into the most bullish case on Wall Street.
Three Years In, and Nvidia Is Still Defying Math
According to Morningstar, Nvidia's accelerator revenue hit $60.4 billion in its latest March quarter — up from $3.4 billion three years ago. That's a 1,600% increase. Morningstar senior equity analyst Brian Colello originally forecast 30% annual growth for Nvidia's data center segment back in May 2023. The actual average growth rate over three years: 142%.
This week, Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, well above consensus expectations of $78.0 billion, per Morningstar. Data center revenue hit $75.2 billion, up 92% year over year.
The AI boom started in semiconductors and has now swept through hardware, infrastructure, and — as of this week — software. Morningstar notes that industrials and utilities have also seen massive rallies tied to AI power demand.
The Momentum Trade Is Flashing a Red Warning
The global momentum trade just hit levels that have never been seen before.
According to Business Standard, citing Bloomberg data, MSCI's global momentum gauge has beaten the MSCI All Country World Index by 17 percentage points since the end of March — on track for its strongest two-month outperformance on record going back to 1991.
Hao Hong, chief investment officer at Lotus Asset Management, told Business Standard: "The momentum story will persist for another few months, with significant volatility in between, till it finally sees a climax."
The crowding risk is real. When every fund manager piles into the same ten stocks and inflation forces the Fed to tighten policy — or if a single major earnings miss cracks confidence — the reversal won't be orderly.
Berkshire Is Telling You Something
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is now 16.3 percentage points behind the S&P 500 year-to-date, according to CNBC. That's the biggest gap of 2026. At the end of March, Berkshire was actually beating the index by 1.8 points. Then the S&P zoomed more than 35% in April and May while Berkshire fell nearly 11%.
22V Research told clients that Berkshire's relative performance ratio versus the S&P has dropped to its lowest levels since 2007. The firm noted: "Berkshire Hathaway was a good bellwether for the S&P, but that relationship appears to be changing."
New CEO Greg Abel did triple Berkshire's Alphabet stake in Q1 — bringing it to nearly $22 billion, the fifth-largest equity holding in the portfolio. But the company still holds close to $400 billion in cash. Either Abel is being too cautious, or he's the smartest guy in the room.
Buffett sat out the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s and looked like a dinosaur — right up until 2001, when he looked like a genius.
What This Means for Regular People
If you're a regular investor in a 401(k) or index fund, you're riding this wave whether you chose to or not. The S&P 500 is now so dominated by a handful of AI-linked stocks that the index is the AI trade.
The gains are real. The valuations are aggressive. The momentum is historic. And the guy sitting on $400 billion in cash isn't buying.