Sensex Fell 1,605 Points Last Week as Dalal Street Braces for Fed Decision and Jio Platforms Debut on Oct. 28

Since the Nifty 50 closed at 22,422 on Oct. 1, its lowest level since March 2025, Indian stocks have swung with oil prices and U.S. bond yields. The latest leg was another sharp drop. The Sensex fell 1,605 points, or 2.15%, and the Nifty lost 546 points, or 2.36%, in a holiday-shortened session to end last week.

This week stacks the Fed, crude, earnings and a marquee listing into a few days.

The Fed is the main event

The U.S. Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28 and announces its decision Wednesday, Oct. 28. Markets largely expect rates to stay unchanged.

The hold is not what analysts are watching. Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder and CEO of HST Wealth, said the policy guidance is "more important than the decision itself."

He laid out two outcomes. A continued focus on inflation could push U.S. yields and the dollar higher and keep foreign money flowing out of emerging markets. Balanced guidance, he said, could support a temporary recovery in global equities.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking, said investors will read the policy statement and accompanying commentary for signals on where rates go next. Treasury yields, the dollar and crude will also steer Indian markets, he said.

That sensitivity to U.S. yields is not new. The Nifty fell 3.11% in the week ended Oct. 1, its eighth straight weekly loss, as Treasury yields climbed to more than two-decade highs on expectations of further Fed tightening. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services cited "a record global bond rout, renewed strength in crude, and the heaviest foreign selling in six months" at the time.

Oil and West Asia

Crude remains the second pressure point. Analysts say elevated prices threaten to widen India's import bill, complicate the inflation outlook and weigh on the rupee and corporate margins.

On Oct. 19, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, tied that day's selloff to escalating tensions in Hormuz and a surge in Brent crude to $109. The Sensex closed 876 points lower at 73,780 that day, and the Nifty settled at 22,888.95.

Vijayakumar did see a counterweight. He said attractive large-cap valuations and a stronger rupee had turned foreign institutional investors "a bit positive" toward India. His caveat: that stance is "unlikely to sustain, given the high crude price."

Earnings, data and a big listing

Domestic earnings continue this week. Companies scheduled to report include TVS Motor, Asian Paints, Trent, Sun Pharma, Bharat Electronics, Indian Oil, Bank of Baroda and GAIL India.

September industrial production and manufacturing output data are due Oct. 28. Radhakrishnan said the figures and earnings will show whether India's resilient growth outlook can withstand the external pressure.

Jio Platforms is set to make its stock market debut on Oct. 28, the same day as the Fed announcement. Analysts expect the listing to shape sentiment in the primary market.

Five IPOs seek about Rs 2,600 crore

Five companies plan to open public offerings with subscription windows between Oct. 26 and Oct. 29, together targeting close to Rs 2,600 crore.

• EAAA India Alternatives, an Edelweiss Financial Services arm, opens a Rs 1,200-crore issue Oct. 26 and closes it Oct. 28. The price band is Rs 1,585-1,665 per share, valuing the company at Rs 10,765 crore at the top end. The issue is entirely an offer for sale by the Edelweiss Group, so the company receives no proceeds. It has already raised about Rs 360 crore from anchor investors.
• SFC Environmental Technologies, a wastewater treatment provider, is raising Rs 668 crore, with the issue closing Oct. 29. The band is Rs 313-330, valuing it at about Rs 3,233 crore. It combines a Rs 150-crore fresh issue, earmarked for debt repayment and working capital, with an offer for sale of up to 1.57 crore shares by promoters and existing shareholders.
• M K Sons Fine Jewels opens a Rs 275.4-crore issue Oct. 28 and closes it Oct. 30, at Rs 153-162 per share. It includes a fresh issue of 1.36 crore shares and a 34 lakh-share sale by promoter Ramchand Murlidhar Raimalani. The net proceeds fund inventory for a new showroom in Maharashtra and expansion of an existing one.
• BLS Polymers and Bombay Coated and Special Steels complete the slate.

Across the five, companies say they are raising money for expansion, working capital and debt repayment, while some existing shareholders are selling down their holdings.

What to watch Wednesday

Oct. 28 is the crowded day: the Fed's decision, Jio Platforms' scheduled debut, the close of the EAAA India Alternatives subscription and the release of industrial production data. If Fed guidance leans toward more tightening, analysts say the pressure lands on foreign flows, the rupee and the dollar. If it is balanced, Radhakrishnan's expectation is a temporary lift.