Senate Super PACs Redraw the Map: GOP Money Flows to Kansas and South Carolina, Democrats Add Michigan and Maine

Since MAGA Inc. began spending its roughly $400 million war chest in early September, the Senate battlefield has shifted again. The latest ad reservations show both parties' main super PACs reshuffling money with about three weeks left before Election Day.

Where the money is going

The Senate Majority PAC, the leading outside group backing Democratic Senate candidates and aligned with Chuck Schumer, has reserved $3.7 million in Michigan and $3 million in Maine. In Michigan, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed faces Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Semafor reported that the same group has paused ad spending in North Carolina and Georgia. The group's communications director, Lauren French, told Fox News Digital the PAC is active in nine battleground states.

On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund has suspended its North Carolina ad reservations, according to CNN. It has put at least $10 million into Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. It also put $5 million into South Carolina to defend Sen. Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews.

CNN also reports the Senate Leadership Fund has spent more than $100 million in Texas to boost Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. Trump has traveled to Texas three times in a month on Paxton's behalf.

The MAGA Inc. pattern

Federal Election Commission filings show MAGA Inc. has disclosed $15 million in Texas since early September. That includes $10 million to boost Paxton and attack Talarico, plus another $5 million in TV and digital ads.

No Going Back PAC, one of two new super PACs reportedly funded by MAGA Inc., had no October ad reservations in North Carolina as of the latest AdImpact data. In Georgia it had booked only a few hundred thousand dollars. Both figures are a sharp drop from earlier spending, according to MS NOW's analysis of the AdImpact data.

The same data shows the group still spending heavily to flip open Democratic-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. It is also defending Republican-held seats in Ohio and Alaska. MS NOW notes the group could still book more airtime in North Carolina and Georgia, and that the figures do not capture direct mail or canvassing.

Politico reported that MAGA Inc. and other leading GOP super PACs are planning a coordinated push. It would abandon less competitive House races and put more cash behind vulnerable Republicans and key Senate contests.

The money gap

AdImpact says Republican campaigns, committees and aligned groups have outspent their Democratic counterparts by $400 million this cycle. The Republican Party and its top outside groups have put the advantage at roughly $500 million.

"We are being outspent by the Republicans. That's just a fact," French said. She added that Republicans have "monopoly money to play with, whereas we are working with real resources."

New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee Rep. Chris Pappas used the same argument in a fundraising pitch. He said a pro-Trump PAC reserved $10 million in New Hampshire advertising last month and Democrats are "being outspent 3-to-1."

Democrats have shifted money too. American Bridge PAC recently put more than $20 million into South Carolina and Kansas, along with competitive races in Florida and Mississippi.

Dollars versus polls

The cash advantage has not moved the polls. According to FiftyPlusOne, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 7 points. CNN reports that GOP operatives in several battleground states describe their campaign as a triage operation, with polling showing Republicans on track to lose the House. CNN ties that to voter anger over the Iran war and the rising cost of living.

One House Republican running for re-election told CNN, "Trump is dragging the party down." A Trump adviser told the network, "We shouldn't have a fight in a place like Texas, but obviously we do." Both spoke anonymously or without being named in the report.

Fox News Power Rankings now rate South Carolina Likely Republican, moved from Solid. Kansas is Lean Republican. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are rated toss-ups.

Not everyone accepts the polling picture. National Review's Noah Rothman argues that spending decisions are a better measuring stick than surveys. He points to Iowa pollster Chaz Nuttycombe, who warned that a high number of rural Iowans who "ignored" his survey could be a "Canary in the Cornfields." Left-of-center analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote that "low-effort" respondents could leave polls off by up to 3.5 points in one party's favor.

Rothman's point cuts both ways. Six of the seven highest-spending outside groups this cycle are right-of-center or seek to elect Republicans, so a pullback by those groups carries information. MS NOW says the North Carolina and Georgia cuts could signal waning confidence in the candidates there, or a decision to leave those races to other GOP groups.

What is at stake

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and can lose no more than three seats before surrendering control. Their House margin is 218-214.

More than three million Americans have already voted, according to the Daily Wire. The open question for the final stretch is whether No Going Back PAC and the Senate Majority PAC restore North Carolina and Georgia reservations before Election Day.