Scott Colom Defeats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi by About 4,500 Votes, Hyde-Smith Concedes

Since Election Day on Nov. 3, Mississippi's Senate race had sat unresolved while election officials worked through absentee and affidavit ballots. It was settled this evening, Wednesday, Nov. 11. The Associated Press called the race for Democrat Scott Colom, and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith conceded.

With 99% of the expected vote in, Colom led 49.2% to 48.7%. Tallies during the day put his margin between roughly 4,400 and 4,700 votes. Independent Ty Pinkins took about 2.1%.

"While this is not the outcome we worked for or hoped for, I respect the decision of Mississippi voters," Hyde-Smith said in a video message. She congratulated Colom and wished him well. Her campaign spokesperson confirmed she called Colom to concede.

How the count tipped

Colom went to bed on election night with a sliver of a lead, and it grew as officials counted affidavit ballots. Those are the provisional ballots cast when a voter's eligibility or ID can't be confirmed at the polling place. He won a higher share of them than he did of the Election Day vote.

Hinds County, home to Jackson, did much of the lifting. Colom was winning about 80% there, to Hyde-Smith's 19%. Today's last big updates added more than 2,000 votes from Republican-leaning Jackson County, according to the vote counts, and Hyde-Smith did not narrow the gap.

The deadlines were tight. Tuesday, Nov. 10, was the cutoff for resolving affidavit ballots and for receipt of mail ballots postmarked by Election Day. A Mississippi law upheld by the Supreme Court in June allows those ballots to be counted if they arrive within five business days. Counties must certify by Friday, Nov. 13.

Mississippi has no automatic recount. Derek Muller, a Notre Dame election-law professor, wrote that a losing candidate could challenge the inclusion or exclusion of ballots in court or ask the U.S. Senate to decide who is seated. Hyde-Smith's concession makes that route moot unless she changes course.

The Republican side of the fight

Hyde-Smith's campaign spent the counting period arguing for scrutiny. Campaign manager Jake Monssen said the team was working "to protect the integrity of this election and to ensure every legal vote is counted." The campaign and the Republican Senate campaign committee also filed a request tied to the county counts. Both campaigns sent dueling letters to state election officials over how affidavit ballots were segregated. The Democratic Senate campaign committee sent lawyers to monitor the count.

No source has presented verified evidence of fraud, and Hyde-Smith has not contested the result. With a margin of about half a point, the dispute was over ballot-handling rules, not a recount.

Hyde-Smith, 67, said before the call that she and her team "worked very hard and had a very good campaign." She had led the public polls. A Change Research survey Oct. 21-22 had her ahead 43% to 40%. A Data for Progress poll in August had it 44% to 38%. The Cook Political Report rated the race Likely Republican going into Nov. 3.

What Colom ran on

Colom, 43, is the district attorney for Mississippi's 16th Judicial District. He built his campaign on cost of living and health care. His ad hammered Hyde-Smith for a February remark that, with beef prices up, "you have so many other proteins to choose from." He called her "Cindy High Prices." The ad's tagline: pick another senator.

He also ran against Trump's record. Colom blamed tariffs, lost health coverage and the war in Iran, which he said drove up costs for farmers, truckers and businesses. NBC News exit polling found a majority of Mississippi voters disapproved of Trump's job performance. Majorities said his policies, including tariffs, hurt the economy and that U.S. military action in Iran was wrong.

Hyde-Smith's campaign went another way. It called Colom "the most radical liberal" to run in Mississippi and labeled him a "Transgender Defender." Colom signed a 2021 letter opposing criminalization of transgender people and gender-affirming care. He has said he opposes gender-affirming surgeries for minors. Hyde-Smith has not debated since 2018, and Colom called her a "chicken" for ducking him.

There is history here. In 2023, Biden nominated Colom for a federal judgeship in northern Mississippi, and Hyde-Smith blocked his confirmation hearing. On Election Day she joked: "I blocked Scott Colom from being a federal judge, and you blocked him from being a US Senator." Colom has said he forgave her.

The money question

Colom said national Democrats largely ignored the state until the end. "Mississippi has never been a lost cause, we've been a betrayed cause," he said. Senate Majority PAC announced an ad campaign in late October. Kamala Harris, Bill Clinton, Raphael Warnock, Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg all visited late. Trump rallied for Hyde-Smith in October.

The Senate math

Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since John Stennis in 1982. Colom will be the state's first Black senator since Reconstruction. Mississippi's Black population is close to 40%, the highest share in the country.

Colom is the eighth Democrat to flip a Republican-held Senate seat this year. That puts Democrats at no fewer than 55 seats when the new Senate convenes. The Alaska race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is the only one left. Earlier today Peltola led by 4,250 votes with 84% counted, according to the AP. If no one clears 50%, the race goes to a ranked-choice round. A Peltola win would make it 56-44.

Colom was due to address supporters at a victory party tonight. Next up is county certification on Friday, Nov. 13.