Samsung Set to Report Nine-Fold Profit Jump Thursday as AI Chip Boom Hits New Milestone

Samsung Electronics is set to release preliminary third-quarter earnings guidance on Thursday, October 8, and analysts expect the number to be historic: operating profit of roughly 106.1 trillion won, or about $79.1 billion, according to Reuters reporting carried by Euronext, Global Banking and Finance Review, and Channel NewsAsia.

That would be up from 12.17 trillion won in the same quarter a year ago, a nearly nine-fold increase. If the figure holds, Samsung would clear 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit for the first time, according to the Korea JoongAng Daily, which cited a FnGuide consensus of 106.94 trillion won in operating profit and 200.77 trillion won in revenue as of last Friday.

The AI Chip Engine

The driver is high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, the stacked memory chips that sit next to AI processors and move data faster with less wasted power. Crypto Briefing reported that Samsung's Device Solutions chip division is expected to post operating margins of 72-76%, with HBM4, the newest generation of the technology, projected to triple in revenue sequentially in Q3 and account for more than 60% of Samsung's HBM revenue in the back half of 2026.

Samsung spent much of the AI boom playing catch-up to domestic rival SK hynix in HBM supply. That gap is narrowing. Crypto Briefing reported Samsung's HBM market share rose to about 33% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 21% in the first quarter. In overall DRAM, the Korea JoongAng Daily reported Samsung held the top global spot with 39% share in Q2, per Counterpoint Research, ahead of SK hynix at 26% and Micron at 25%.

Estimates Are Coming Down

Despite the projected nine-fold jump, the LSEG SmartEstimate, based on 21 analysts, has been cut 7.7% since the end of August, according to Reuters reporting republished by Euronext and Channel NewsAsia.

Two things are weighing on the outlook. First, the Korean won has strengthened faster than expected. Samsung sells chips globally in dollars but reports earnings in won, so a stronger won shrinks the won value of dollar sales. Eugene Investment & Securities analyst Son Ik-jun told the Korea JoongAng Daily his firm lowered its won-dollar exchange rate assumption from 1,440 to 1,400, partly to account for that effect, and also factored in a widening loss at Samsung's Mobile eXperience division plus new bonus provisions. Starting next year, Samsung will set aside bonus provisions tied to operating profit, with semiconductor division employees receiving payouts in 2027.

Second, and more significant for the broader AI trade, the pace of memory price increases is slowing. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% in the fourth quarter, down sharply from a roughly 60% surge in the second quarter, according to the firm's senior vice president for research, Avril Wu, cited by Reuters. Wu said suppliers are wary of further steep increases that could hurt demand across consumer electronics, and noted that long-term supply contracts with built-in price ceilings now make up a growing share of output, which mechanically slows the rate of price growth.

Kiwoom Securities analyst Park Yu-ak told the Korea JoongAng Daily he expects commodity DRAM and NAND prices to rise just 3% and 12% respectively in Q4, as customers push back on cost increases and Samsung faces rising competition from Chinese rivals CXMT and YMTC.

Has the AI Trade Peaked?

The moderating price growth is fueling concern among investors that memory chip margins may have already peaked, and that the broader AI infrastructure spending boom could be due for a slowdown. Reuters noted the industry has watched closely for exactly this signal after more than a year of rallying prices that pushed Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron to record profits.

But the bulk of market forecasts still point the other direction. Chipmakers expect the memory shortage, which began more than a year ago, to persist into 2027 and potentially through 2028, per Reuters. Some projections cited in the Korea JoongAng Daily call for HBM prices to more than double in 2027. Micron has separately said the chip market could be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than this year, even as it expects its own gross margin to slip from current levels.

In July, Samsung said it aimed to lock in long-term contracts covering roughly two-thirds of its memory output, a hedge against the industry's historic boom-and-bust swings.

Markets Are Already Pricing in Caution

South Korea's Kospi hovered near 6,900 on Tuesday, pressured by combined foreign and institutional selling even as U.S. stocks closed at fresh records overnight, according to Bloomingbit, which cited Kiwoom Securities analyst Han Ji-young pointing to wait-and-see sentiment ahead of Thursday's earnings. Samsung shares ticked up 0.55% to 273,500 won, while SK hynix fell 1.80% to 1.741 million won in the same session, Bloomingbit reported.

Thursday's preliminary guidance will either confirm the 100-trillion-won milestone or fall short of the consensus that's already been trimmed twice since August. Detailed results, including the breakdown investors need to judge whether HBM margins are actually holding up, aren't due until late October.