Rubio Says US and India Are 'About as Close as You Can Be' to a Trade Deal, With a 'Small Number of Items' Left

Since Rubio's Mumbai stop was announced over the weekend, the question has been whether it would produce anything on the stalled trade deal. On Tuesday, Oct. 20, he gave an answer in words, if not yet in a signed document.

"We're very, very close," Rubio told reporters in Mumbai. "I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement. I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly."

He added that he hopes to "have some good news to announce soon and sign it thereafter."

State Department, not the negotiator

Rubio was careful about his own role. "The State Department doesn't negotiate trade agreements, but we are very much involved in what's happening," he said. He named his counterpart, the National Security Advisor, as someone who also cares a great deal about the deal.

He did not say which items remain open. He gave no date for an announcement or a signing.

Where the deal stands

Washington put tariffs of up to 50% on most Indian goods in August 2025 after talks broke down. A framework agreed in February cut the rate to 18%. Negotiations have stalled since.

India's own officials have not spoken with one voice. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said earlier this month that the talks had "plateaued." Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said last week that the first tranche of a deal was in its final stages.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India wants preferential access to the US market and greater tariff stability. New Delhi has also said its final tariff rate should be comparable to those of competing manufacturing countries such as Vietnam.

Rubio's "small number of items" line sits closer to Goyal's account than Sitharaman's. Which of the two is closer to the truth will show up in whether a text is announced.

Russian oil and the waiver

Russian crude is the other thread. The US cited India's purchases of discounted Russian oil, which began after the Ukraine war started in February 2022, as a factor behind the 50% tariff. Rubio's tone on the subject on Tuesday was friendly.

"I think what India has expressed repeatedly is its desire to diversify its energy portfolio, which is a smart thing to do," he said. "It's not easy to do that from one day to the next. I think they've made some substantial progress in that regard, and we're happy to see that."

Before leaving Washington on Saturday, he said India still takes a substantial amount of Russian energy because "it's hard to pivot from one day to the next," and called it "an important ally and partner of the United States."

Hindustan Times reported that days earlier the US waived some sanctions on Russia just as they were due to take effect. Those measures would have carried tariffs of up to 100% on India, China and three other countries. The paper also reported that President Trump had announced a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin to import Russian energy, aimed at easing fuel prices in the US.

Rubio said Monday that finalizing the India deal was one of the factors weighed in the national security waiver decisions, according to Hindustan Times.

Venezuela and the refinery visit

Rubio also pointed to Venezuela as a way for India to reshape its crude supply. He called India "a refining superpower" able to process heavy crude, and said the US delegation will discuss with Reliance the production of oil in Venezuela.

"As more and more Venezuelan oil comes online, it's something they can do," he said. He added that India already holds oil concessions in Venezuela that could produce more.

He was also frank about the limits. "I'm not claiming to you that Venezuela alone can fill the hole," he said, referring to supply disruptions elsewhere.

The State Department has scheduled Rubio to visit a refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, on Wednesday, Oct. 21, and to meet business leaders.

The rest of the Mumbai agenda

Rubio laid a wreath at the 26/11 memorial at the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, then met External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar at the same venue. Jaishankar said they covered trade, energy, technology and defense, along with regional developments.

The two also held a trilateral meeting with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who was also visiting India. Rubio said they discussed "regional energy security and advance our shared economic priorities."

US Ambassador Sergio Gor described the talks on X as "productive discussions" on defense, energy, emerging technologies and trade.

This is Rubio's second India visit this year. It follows his trip to Uzbekistan earlier this week, where he promoted trade and ties with Central Asia.

Washington sees India as a key counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, which is why defense and technology cooperation has continued through the tariff fight.

The open question is the tariff number. India wants a rate in line with Vietnam's, and neither government has said whether the 18% rate in the February framework will hold, drop or be replaced. Rubio's Wednesday stop at Jamnagar is the next scheduled event; no announcement or signing date has been given.