Reuters/Ipsos Has Trump Approval at 31%, Post-ABC at 33%, With Democrats Up 8 to 12 Points on the Midterm Ballot

President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released today, Oct. 19, the lowest reading of his political career in that survey. The same poll found Democrats leading Republicans by 12 points when respondents were asked whether they would rather vote for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican.

The midterm elections are set for Nov. 3. Control of the House and Senate is at stake.

What the new numbers show

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Sunday, Oct. 18, has Trump at 33% approval among U.S. adults and 66% disapproving. Fifty-two percent disapprove strongly. That is four points lower than in July and eight points lower than at this point last year, and below any reading in his first term. The poll was conducted Oct. 9-13 and surveyed 2,545 adults.

Among likely voters, Trump's approval in that poll is 38% and disapproval is 62%.

Democrats hold an eight-point lead for the House among registered and likely voters in the Post-ABC poll. In July the lead was three points among registered voters. Among likely voters the poll has Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 44%.

An NBC News Decision Desk poll, also released Sunday, found 55% of registered voters favor Democrats and 44% Republicans. Seventy-one percent of adults in that survey say the country is on the wrong track. The Post-ABC poll puts that figure at 72%, up five points since April.

The Post-ABC poll also found that, for the first time in more than a decade, Democrats are seen as more trusted to handle the economy. By 58% to 39%, registered voters said they would rather have a Democratic Congress acting as a check on Trump than a Republican one backing his agenda. That margin is roughly double what it was a year ago.

Prices and the Iran war

The war with Iran, launched Feb. 28 by the U.S. and Israel, sits at the center of the polling. Al Jazeera, citing the Reuters/Ipsos data, reports disapproval has climbed steadily in recent months, especially since the war began. The war has pushed up petrol and diesel prices.

AAA data put regular gasoline at about $4.33 a gallon as of last Wednesday, $1.25 higher than a year ago. In the Post-ABC poll, seven in 10 said gasoline was becoming unaffordable.

The Fox News poll, conducted Oct. 9-12 among 1,202 registered voters with a 2.5-point margin of error, shows the same pocketbook squeeze. Six in 10 voters name the cost of living as their top economic worry. Seventy-four percent rate the economy negatively. Fifty-five percent say inflation is "not at all" under control.

Trump's approval on inflation in that survey is 22%, a new low. Four years ago, before the 2022 midterms, 29% approved of then-President Joe Biden's handling of inflation. Biden's party lost the House that year.

Fox has Trump's overall approval at 36%, his lowest in either term in its polling. Republican approval of Trump is 76%, down 16 points since March 2025. In the Fox poll, 54% say they would back the Democrat in their House district and 45% the Republican. Among those certain to vote, it is 52% to 46%.

Trump's response

Trump has said the war would end after the midterms but has not said how. He acknowledged "it's possible" the Iran war could cost him the November elections.

On gas prices, he said during a September midterm swing that the increase was a "very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done." He added, "That's going to come tumbling down. That's going to be like rocket ships in reverse."

South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews, who is challenging Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, called the war a "$50 billion war that is deeply unpopular and misguided." She said shrimpers and fishermen in the Low Country are being "crushed by these diesel prices."

The $50 billion figure is Andrews's, and no source in these polls independently confirms it.

Where Republicans still have room

The Post-ABC authors say the survey does not predict how individual House or Senate races will turn out. Many of the most competitive Senate races remain in the balance.

Republicans still hold an overall advantage in money for political advertising. That money is shifting to protect candidates in redder areas, according to the Post's reporting.

Democrats have a big advantage among those who say they are certain to vote or have already voted. Republicans fare relatively well among people who turned out in 2022 or 2024, which are also strong predictors of turnout. In the Fox poll, border security was the one issue at 50% approve, 50% disapprove for Trump.

The numbers across pollsters are not identical. Trump's approval ranges from 31% to 36% in the surveys released this weekend and today, and the generic-ballot gap runs from 8 to 12 points depending on the survey and the voter screen. What remains open is whether the likely-voter models hold up on Nov. 3, and whether gas prices fall before then, as Trump has predicted.