The Dust Settled. Now the Hard Part Starts.

The votes were counted Tuesday. By Wednesday and into the weekend, every political player in America had a hot take — and some of them actually matter.

Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn 63.8% to 36%. We covered that. Here's what happened next.

Paxton Sits Down With Thune

According to The Hill, Paxton said Sunday he will meet with Senate Majority Leader John Thune following the runoff win. Thune openly backed Cornyn — calling him a "principled conservative" and a "very effective senator" just last week, according to CBS News. Now he has to make nice with the man who just demolished his preferred candidate.

Thune already tried to minimize the damage, telling reporters last week that "one state doesn't determine the outcome of this election." Translation: we're moving on whether we like it or not.

A GOP Strategist Goes on Record

GOP strategist Brad Todd didn't mince words. According to The Hill, Todd called Trump's endorsement of Paxton a "100-million-dollar mistake" on Sunday.

That's a Republican operative — not a Democrat, not CNN — saying the quiet part loud. The argument is simple: Cornyn was a known commodity, a 24-year incumbent, a prolific fundraiser, and a reliable 99%-with-Trump vote. Paxton carries real baggage — impeachment by the Texas House in 2023, a federal bribery investigation, and a string of personal scandals that Democrats are already cataloguing.

Todd's math is straightforward. Holding Texas costs money. Competitive Texas costs a LOT of money. That's cash the NRSC can't spend in Georgia, Maine, or Michigan.

Democrats Are Already Chest-Bumping

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear went on the record Sunday, according to The Hill, saying flat out: "Texas is in play."

Beshear is one of the few Democrats who actually wins in red-leaning territory, so he's not a random partisan voice.

The Cook Political Report moved Texas from Likely Republican to Leaning Republican the moment Paxton became the nominee, according to CBS News. That shift reflects how professional forecasters see the race.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, per CBS News. Democrats have been "Texas is in play" people before and been wrong every single time. Beto O'Rourke came closest in 2018, losing to Ted Cruz by 2.6 points. That's still a loss.

But this time they have a specific argument: Paxton isn't Cruz. He's an attorney general who was impeached by his own party's supermajority in the Texas House, survived a Senate trial on party-line votes, and is still under a federal investigation that hasn't gone away.

Who Is James Talarico?

Paxton's general election opponent is Austin state Rep. James Talarico. The Texas Tribune reports Talarico will be "by far his best-funded and most prominent opponent" — the first time Paxton runs at the top of a ticket.

Talarico won a majority outright in March's first round of primaries and didn't even need a runoff. He's been raising money and staying clean while Paxton and Cornyn beat each other up for months.

Democrats made no secret they preferred facing Paxton, according to the Texas Tribune. They got what they wanted. Now they have to deliver.

What Mainstream Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets are treating this as a foregone conclusion that Texas is suddenly purple. The Cook Political Report said leaning Republican — not toss-up, not leaning Democrat. There's a difference.

Right-leaning commentary is doing the opposite — dismissing Democratic optimism entirely and pretending Paxton's baggage doesn't exist. It does. A federal bribery investigation is a serious liability. The Texas House impeachment happened. Those are facts.

Texas is more competitive than it should be for Republicans, and that's entirely self-inflicted. The GOP establishment warned about this for months. Trump ignored them. Now everyone has to live with the outcome.

What Trump Said About It

According to NBC News, Trump touted Paxton's win at his 11th public Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, framing it as further proof of his endorsement power. He's right that his endorsement moved the needle — it clearly did, decisively. Whether that was the right call for the party's Senate majority is a separate question he didn't address.

What Happens Next

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, per CBS News. Democrats need to net four to retake the majority. That's a steep climb. But every seat that becomes competitive stretches Republican money and attention thin.

Paxton can win in November. Texas has rejected Democrats statewide for 38 years straight. But the GOP just handed the other side a gift-wrapped argument, a well-funded opponent, and a race that should never have been close.

The Thune-Paxton meeting will be polite. What happens in November will not be.