Paxton and Talarico Enter Final Week of Texas Senate Race With Early Voting Under Way

Seven days from Election Day, Texas has a Senate race that Republicans did not expect to be fighting.

State Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin. Talarico has led polling for much of the campaign, according to KSAT. Early voting continues through Friday, Oct. 30, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The message war

Both candidates are running on affordability, and both are using it as a weapon.

Paxton called Talarico "the most radical Democrat ever to run statewide" at a Georgetown event on Saturday. "James Talarico does have a plan for your money; it just doesn't include you," he said. He added that Talarico is "a radical that's never met a tax increase he didn't love."

Paxton's own pitch: "I'm going to fight so that every Texan can buy a home, raise a family, and live a healthy life without struggling to make ends meet."

Talarico, speaking at Sunset Station in San Antonio, said he meets Texans "drowning" financially. He framed the race as voters against "the billionaires." He also keeps hammering Paxton's record, calling him the "most corrupt politician in Texas."

Talarico's bar-tab line: Paxton "hears you say your name to the bartender and then adds his drink to your tab when you're not looking."

Republicans have tried to define Talarico, 37, as a left-wing novelty. The Guardian reports they have likened him to a "Coexist" bumper sticker in human form.

Paxton's record

Paxton, 63, has been Texas attorney general since 2015. His history is the main reason a Republican is struggling in a state Democrats have lost for decades.

In July 2015, a grand jury indicted him on three felonies: two counts of first-degree securities fraud and one count of third-degree failure to register as an investment adviser. The charges involved investors he steered to a tech startup, Servergy, while a state legislator. Prosecutors alleged he failed to disclose he was being paid to attract that money. Paxton settled the case without admitting guilt. In 2014, the Texas State Securities Board had already fined him $1,000.

In 2020, eight of his own staffers asked the FBI to investigate whether he abused his office to help a real estate investor and donor. The allegation was that the favors were returned with a free kitchen renovation and a job for a woman with whom Paxton was having an affair. Paxton and the investor denied it. The investor was never charged. The Republican-led Texas legislature impeached Paxton over the matter, and he was acquitted.

Paxton's defenders have a simple answer: every one of these fights ended without a conviction, and voters have returned him to office anyway. He has denied the wrongdoing alleged in the staff complaint and other episodes. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year on "biblical grounds," according to The Guardian's account.

The skepticism is not only coming from Democrats. Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said Paxton's legal and ethical history has some conservatives looking elsewhere.

The Libertarian wrinkle

That brings in a third name on the ballot. Libertarian Ted Brown drew just 2.3% in 2024, when Sen. Ted Cruz won comfortably. This year's race is much tighter, and a few points matter.

"Nobody's voting for the Libertarian. It's a protest vote," Hamilton said. "They are going to be voting that way because they don't want to vote for Paxton, and this is an option."

Republican Senate campaign officials, speaking anonymously about internal strategy, told the Associated Press they are more worried about Texas, Ohio and Kansas than Iowa. Party strategists cited in that reporting point to voter unhappiness with President Donald Trump, including over an unpopular war with Iran and his expansion of executive power. Gene Krebs, a Republican former Ohio lawmaker working on a project to blunt spoiler candidates, said Libertarians "could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races."

Third parties can cut the other way too. In Ohio, an organization with Republican ties has mailed fliers promoting a socialist candidate in an apparent effort to pull votes from Democrat Sherrod Brown, according to federal disclosure reports.

Trump's pitch

Trump endorsed Paxton at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas. He did not oversell. "He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I've ever seen," Trump told the crowd. "He deserves to be your next senator."

Trump has been more effusive about other candidates. At an Oct. 17 rally he lavished physical praise on Ohio Sen. Jon Husted.

What decides it

Paxton needs to hold Republican voters who have doubts about him, and Talarico needs Democrats to turn out in a state they have not won statewide in a Senate race in decades.

The open question is how many conservatives who dislike Paxton vote Libertarian or skip the race, and whether that number is larger than the margin. Texas polls close at 7 p.m. on Nov. 3.