Oil Majors' Record Profits Draw Pressure in France and Britain as Brent Holds Near $114

The windfall is now a political fight. Shell and TotalEnergies reported results on Thursday, Oct. 29, and ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP followed on Friday. Within days, the French government asked TotalEnergies to cut pump prices, and a British campaign group called for a special tax.

France leans on Total over diesel

TotalEnergies posted a record third-quarter net profit of $8.3 billion. Shell's profit after tax more than doubled year-on-year to $12.1 billion, and both companies raised shareholder payouts. Shell CEO Wael Sawan called the results "very strong" in a quarter of "continued severe disruption to the global energy system."

Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon told BFM television that Paris wants Total to "pass on the benefits" of strategic diesel reserves released this month, and to keep capping prices "for as long as necessary."

The government released 10 million barrels of diesel to distributors and hoped for a pump-price cut of 12 to 18 cents per litre. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné estimated the cut passed to consumers would be 8 to 12 cents.

Bregeon also warned against "Total-bashing." Weeks of cost-of-living protests have hit France this month.

Britain: a tax demand

Philip Evans, senior climate campaigner at Greenpeace, called on the UK government to tax the companies. "These profits go beyond mere greed, they are openly villainous," he said. No tax proposal from the government has surfaced in these accounts.

Spanish group Repsol also quadrupled its nine-month net profit to €5 billion ($5.6 billion).

The U.S. numbers

Exxon earned $15.4 billion in the quarter, more than double a year earlier. Chevron earned $9.9 billion, up 180%. Exxon announced its highest-ever quarterly dividend, and Shell's buyback was among its largest.

Brent crude is around $113 to $114 a barrel. Before the Iran war began it was about $70, according to NPR. AAA data shows gasoline costs about $1.20 more per gallon than a year ago. Diesel hit a record in September.

Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, said the majors are benefiting because they can sell U.S., Latin American and European barrels at much higher prices. "The Middle East's loss is generally the gain of oil and gas companies in the U.S. and Europe," he said.

He also said the companies are not pouring the cash into new drilling because the price spike is geopolitical. "You put the money in the bank and watch to see what happens as we move into 2027," he said.

Exxon's plan: squeeze more from existing refineries

On Friday's earnings call, CEO Darren Woods said Exxon will invest in existing plants at Baytown and Beaumont in Texas and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. He said that adds capacity at roughly half the cost of a new facility.

Exxon expects the U.S. projects to add another 100,000 barrels a day of distillate output. Woods gave no timeline.

The company expects about 350,000 oil-equivalent barrels a day of Middle East production to stay offline in the fourth quarter, assuming current disruptions continue. A fifth floating production vessel in Guyana is set to start late in the quarter.

The state-policy argument

Not everyone blames the war. A Fox News opinion column argues the conflict explains the timing of high heating and fuel bills but not the vulnerability. Its author says the U.S. has 130 operable refineries, down from 301 in 1982, with no major new one built since 1976.

The column also blames blue-state policy. It points to New York's rejection of the Constitution Pipeline, which would carry Pennsylvania gas 124 miles. It says the company withdrew its 2025 reapplication in November after three notices that the application was incomplete. It also cites New York City's Local Law 97 emissions fines and nuclear and coal plant closures.

That is the author's case, and it runs against the explanation from Pickering and the companies' own results: oil trades on a world market, and war-driven refining margins set the price.

Diesel is easing, crude is not

Diesel has softened. The ICE gasoil crack has slid toward $70 a barrel, its lowest since early October, according to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. They tie the drop to Russia lifting its diesel export ban earlier this month after a deal with President Trump to supply more diesel to global markets.

Crude has not followed. ING says Brent is pricing in a greater chance of re-escalation with Iran, and that the market is waiting for Trump's next move.

The analysts expect clarity only after the Nov. 3 midterms. They say an agreement between the U.S. and Iran may not be needed for prices to fall. If the election passes without renewed strikes on Iran, that could be enough for the risk premium to start eroding.

That makes Tuesday, Nov. 3, the next test. If strikes resume, the margins that produced these profits stay fat. If they do not, ING expects the premium to bleed out, and the political pressure on the majors will be tested against falling prices.