Nvidia Guides to $108 Billion for Next Quarter While Assuming Zero China Chip Revenue

Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue hit $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, beating the roughly $92.3 billion Wall Street analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected, according to BitRss. Data center chips, the GPUs that power AI training and inference, accounted for $89.0 billion of that, up 117% year over year.

The company's guidance for the current quarter is $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, according to The Motley Fool. Buried in that number is a footnote: Nvidia is "not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China" at all. Despite that, management still projects roughly 70% revenue growth for full fiscal year 2028, according to Crypto Briefing and 24/7 Wall St.

How China Went From a Fifth of the Business to Basically Zero

Before export restrictions took hold, China accounted for roughly 13% to 25% of Nvidia's data center revenue, depending on the period, according to Crypto Briefing and The Motley Fool. That started unwinding in April 2025, when the U.S. government told Nvidia it needed a license to export even the H20 chip it had designed specifically to comply with earlier restrictions. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion charge when that market closed, The Motley Fool reported. By last October, CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market had fallen from about 95% to zero.

Starting in February 2026, Washington began issuing licenses allowing Nvidia to ship a limited number of H200 chips to approved Chinese customers, under a deal requiring Nvidia to hand over 25% of that China revenue to the U.S. government, according to BitRss and TipRanks. Roughly 10 approved Chinese firms received shipments, but uptake was minimal, according to Crypto Briefing. Nvidia took a separate $400 million charge this year on excess H200 inventory it couldn't move, per The Motley Fool.

The bottleneck now sits in Beijing, not Washington. Chinese officials have limited large deliveries and pushed domestic tech firms toward homegrown chipmakers instead, according to TipRanks and BitRss. Total China revenue across all Nvidia products, including gaming and workstation chips that aren't export-restricted, came to about $7.9 billion last quarter, roughly 8% of total sales, up from $4.0 billion a year earlier. Data center compute sales into China were under 1% of that segment.

What's on the Table Thursday

President Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on Thursday, September 24, with AI among the topics on the agenda, according to The Motley Fool. Huang is reportedly expected at the state dinner that night.

Nvidia has pegged China's AI chip demand at roughly $50 billion a year, according to TipRanks. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh estimates Chinese tech firms would order about 1.5 million H200 chips if approvals came through, worth close to $30 billion in new revenue. Any easing of restrictions from either government would instantly reopen a channel Nvidia's own guidance currently books as zero.

There's a reasonable case for skepticism here. Even when Washington cleared H200 exports in February, Chinese buyers still declined the hardware and Beijing kept limiting large orders, favoring domestic suppliers, according to BitRss. A summit agreement between Trump and Xi doesn't guarantee Chinese state buyers actually place orders. Nvidia's own forecast reflects that reality by assuming nothing changes.

Huang has separately argued for looser export rules generally. In remarks reported by Breitbart, he told reporters in Scotland, at a summit on AI safety alongside Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic, that he expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year as this year, citing rising AI investment across nearly every country Nvidia operates in. Nvidia doesn't disclose total chip unit sales, so there's no public baseline to double against.

The Stock Doesn't Agree With the Fundamentals Right Now

Nvidia shares broke a long uptrend in mid-September, closing at $210.96 on September 14, down 3.36% that session, with the RSI dropping to an oversold 29, according to TradingKey. That outlet attributes the sell-off to AI-safety concerns raised by industry executives and to rising Treasury yields above 5%, not to any change in Nvidia's order book or the China assumption. Shares have since climbed back, trading around $224.10, up roughly 19% year-to-date but still below the $235.74 closing high set in May, according to TipRanks.

Wall Street remains bullish regardless. TipRanks reports a Strong Buy consensus from 31 analysts, all rating the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $324.32, implying about 46% upside from current levels.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress sold 34,918 shares on September 17 for roughly $7.65 million, under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan that executes automatically when preset price targets are hit, according to TipRanks. No wrongdoing is alleged, and no regulatory inquiry has been announced.

The open question now is whether Thursday's summit produces anything concrete. If it doesn't, Nvidia's $108 billion guidance stands as written: a company planning as if a $50 billion annual market simply doesn't exist.