Since the June 2 primary night in Los Angeles, the race for the second runoff slot behind incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has gone through a complete reversal — and as of Sunday, June 7, it appears settled.

The Numbers

As of the latest count from the LA County Registrar-Recorder, Karen Bass holds 34.68% of the vote. Nithya Raman is at 27.12%. Spencer Pratt sits at 26.69%. Raman's lead over Pratt is 3,113 votes, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Decision Desk HQ called the race for Raman on Sunday with roughly 87% of votes counted, per Breitbart. The Associated Press had already confirmed Bass's runoff spot the week prior.

How This Flipped

Pratt led Raman on election night. He led her for four days straight. Then mail-in ballots started catching up.

California runs a heavily mail-in election. Ballots postmarked by June 2 can legally be received and counted through seven days after Election Day. Late mail ballots in California have historically skewed Democratic — CNN noted this explicitly. The LA Times reported it. CBS News reported it. Every analyst who covers California elections said this going in.

Pratt apparently did not, or chose not to care. His campaign was publicly celebrating a lead that every analyst said was fragile.

Pratt's Reaction

Pratt has NOT conceded. On Sunday, before Decision Desk HQ called the race, he posted: "Remember everyone…we are still in the lead, and we've got allllllll the way til July 6th to keep counting. They're not the only ones who know where to find votes."

That last phrase — "they're not the only ones who know where to find votes" — carries an ambiguous suggestion. His campaign indicated it may wait until the July 6 official certification to concede. That's his legal right, though given the trend lines, it's a long shot.

Zev Yaroslavsky, former LA council member and director of the LA Initiative at UCLA's Luskin School of Public Affairs, told the LA Times: "The odds have shifted dramatically in Raman's favor. The trend is clear. She has been gaining on Pratt for the last three or four days. There's no reason to believe that will change."

What Bass's Camp Is Already Saying

Bass's campaign spokesman Alex Stack went after Raman immediately, saying the mayor would "look forward to winning a contest against an opponent who allows encampments near schools and fights against hiring more cops, yet is MIA on saving Hollywood jobs and fighting back when ICE invades L.A."

This previews how Bass plans to run against Raman — on public safety and economic issues. Raman is a progressive who has clashed with Bass over policing and homeless encampment policy. The November race will pit two Democrats with a meaningful ideological gap between them.

What the Coverage Shows

Right-leaning outlets like Breitbart and the Daily Wire focused on the Pratt angle — celebrity, Republican, insurgent. Pratt ran an attention-grabbing campaign and got close. He didn't win.

Left-leaning and mainstream outlets framed this as validation of Raman's progressive politics. That's premature. Raman is leading by about 3,100 votes with more ballots still coming in. This is close. The fact that Bass's team is already attacking Raman on encampments and cops suggests they see her as a beatable opponent in November.

Most coverage has sidestepped the actual governance question: LA faces a documented homelessness crisis, a recent brush with wildfire devastation, and a police department that has struggled with staffing. The November runoff will amount to a referendum on whether LA voters want to go further left or pull back toward a more traditional approach to city management.

The Bigger California Picture

The gubernatorial race remains unresolved, per CBS News. Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra advanced to the November general election. Republican Steve Hilton — former Fox News host — is battling billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer for the second slot. If Hilton holds on, California's governor's race will feature a real contrast in November for the first time in years.

What Happens Next

Los Angeles is getting a Bass vs. Raman runoff in November. Pratt ran a stronger-than-expected race for a first-time candidate with zero governing experience, nearly pulled off a significant upset, and ultimately fell to the same mail-ballot math that's flipped California races for decades.

The November contest will be a real test: does LA want more of Bass's management, or does it want Raman's further-left vision on policing and encampments? Neither answer is obviously right for a city that's been struggling for years. Voters will decide.