New Texas Flooding Puts 2.5 Million Under Flash Flood Threat, Abbott Declares Emergency in 59 Counties

Since the Guadalupe River disaster that killed 135 people last July 4, Texas Hill Country is once again under a life-threatening flash flood threat. Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency across 59 counties on Tuesday, July 14, as a new round of torrential rain hit the region, according to the New York Post.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 4 out of 4 flash flood risk, the highest category on the scale, for the southern part of Texas Hill Country. A broader Level 3 threat covers the rest of the Hill Country and the San Antonio metro area through Thursday morning.

More than 2.5 million Texans are in the path of the threat, the Post reported. The area includes Kerrville and other Guadalupe River communities that were devastated by last year's flooding.

What's Happening on the Ground

Uvalde took the brunt of the initial hit. Nearly a foot of rain fell on the city since Tuesday morning, according to the Post. A roadside flood marker north of Uvalde showed floodwaters nearly reaching the 5-foot line.

Uvalde police conducted 24 water rescues Tuesday. FOX Weather senior correspondent Robert Ray reported widespread washouts near Dhanis, Texas, where roughly 10 inches of rain fell, rendering roads impassable.

Widespread road closures remain in effect across Kerrville and Hondo. Medina County Sheriff's deputies have been checking roads inundated with water, according to the Medina County Office of Emergency Management, which confirmed multiple roadways submerged in the heavy rainfall zones.

Abbott ordered Blackhawk helicopters and other rescue teams deployed Tuesday. The Texas National Guard and other state resources were activated ahead of the storms hitting.

More Rain Coming

Heavy rain was expected to redevelop Wednesday morning across the affected areas. The FOX Forecast Center projects an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain through Friday, with isolated pockets seeing 3 to 5 inches on top of what's already fallen.

Flood watches remain in place across central and southwestern Texas, including Austin, Kerrville, and Del Rio, through Thursday. A broader but lower-level Level 1 flash flood threat stretches into Central Texas, North Texas, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

This is the same Hill Country terrain, the same river system, and in some cases the same towns that flooded catastrophically almost exactly one year ago. Kerr County and the Guadalupe River corridor are back under a Level 3 threat right now.

A fair question raised by residents and local officials in the wake of last year's disaster was whether warning systems, evacuation planning, and infrastructure had been meaningfully upgraded since 135 people died. Hill Country's flash-flood geography, with narrow river valleys and low water crossings, makes rapid, deadly flooding a recurring and predictable risk, not a freak occurrence.

There is no evidence in current reporting that this week's response has repeated last year's failures. Abbott activated the National Guard and rescue helicopters before the worst rain hit, not after. Uvalde police ran 24 rescues without any reported fatalities as of this writing. Medina County deputies were actively verifying road conditions in real time. That represents a materially faster and more proactive posture than what was documented in the run-up to last July's disaster.

Whether that holds through Friday, when the FOX Forecast Center expects another 2 to 5 inches of rain on already-saturated ground, is the open question. Local officials have not yet reported any deaths or missing persons tied to this week's flooding. That could change quickly if the rain totals FOX Weather is forecasting materialize on top of ground that's already near capacity.