Midterm Election Night Runs From Kentucky and Indiana Closings to Alaska, With Senate Control Possibly Unsettled for Days

Election Day is tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the order in which the states report will shape the story of the night. Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority and hold the House by only a few seats. Control of both chambers is on the line, along with 36 governorships.

The order of the night

The first polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Some Kentucky polls start closing at 6 p.m. ET.

The Downballot's managing editor Jeff Singer has flagged a pair of House races on deep-red turf in those two states. He says the margins there matter as much as who wins. A Democrat who overperforms in Trump country early is the first sign of a big night.

Georgia and South Carolina follow, both with Senate races. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election against Republican Rep. Mike Collins, in a state Trump carried two years ago. In South Carolina, Republicans are working to elect Sen. Darline Graham to a full term. Republicans have been paying closer attention to the race lately, a sign it may be tighter than the party wanted.

Virginia's competitive House races also close early. They offer early, though far from definitive, clues about whether Democrats can compete in districts Trump won.

The 8 p.m. ET wave brings Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term. It also brings Pennsylvania, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is on the ballot for re-election. A strong Shapiro showing could help his party flip three House seats and would set him up for a potential White House run, according to MS NOW.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls will have closed in some of the cycle's most consequential states.

Maps, measures and mid-decade redraws

Republican redraws of Democratic-held House districts in Alabama, Tennessee and Florida get their first real test. North Carolina is also in play. Democrats are defending a House seat reshaped by a Republican gerrymander and trying to flip a district in the west of the state.

Missouri voters will decide two high-profile ballot measures. One asks whether future elections should use a Republican-drawn congressional map that targets a Democratic-held district around Kansas City. The other would restrict abortion access.

In Ohio, Democrats have a clear shot at a Senate seat and the governor's race, and could also win tough House races, according to MS NOW.

Where the Senate gets decided

North Carolina is Democrats' best chance anywhere to flip a Republican-held Senate seat, per MS NOW.

The forecasts differ on how hard the Senate is for Democrats. MS NOW says Democrats are well positioned to win back the House and that their path to the Senate is more complicated. Fox News headlines its election preview with the line that Senate control is "a coin flip" and that Democrats' path "runs through Trump country."

The Downballot ends its hour-by-hour guide in Alaska, where it says a pivotal Senate battle could determine who wins the chamber. The Sunday Guardian Live lists Florida, Virginia, Kentucky and Iowa as the most informative early races and says Maine and Alaska are likely to take longer to resolve.

The president's closing message

On the eve of the vote, Trump was still talking about damage to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. PBS NewsHour host Geoff Bennett noted that Trump's own Justice Department concluded the damage came from botched construction, not vandalism.

Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said voters' concerns and the president's focus are not matching up. She pointed to opinions on his handling of the economy, driven by inflation and gas prices. She also said voters tell her they do not think the president is working hard enough on lowering their costs.

When the answers come

Broadcast coverage starts early. CNN begins at 4 p.m. ET, Fox News Channel at 6 p.m. and BBC News at 6:30 p.m. ABC, CBS and The Hill's Decision Desk start at 7 p.m. The Downballot's livestream begins at 6:45 p.m.

The tally itself may not keep pace. The Sunday Guardian Live says it may take days or even weeks to establish who holds the House or Senate. In Texas and Alaska, it says, complex voting rules and mail-ballot verification mean final outcomes may not be certified right away.

The open question is whether Alaska, the Senate race the Downballot calls pivotal, is still uncalled when the networks go off the air.