Micron Overtakes Nvidia as Top S&P 500 Profit Growth Driver Ahead of Wednesday's Earnings Report

Micron Technology doesn't get the headlines Nvidia does. The numbers say maybe it should.

The Boise, Idaho-based DRAM and NAND manufacturer already surpassed Nvidia as the single largest contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter that ended in the spring, according to an analysis by Crypto Briefing. Micron's year-over-year profit growth for that period topped 1,200%.

The Numbers Behind the Surge

Micron's fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, covering the period through May 28, were the engine. Revenue hit $41.46 billion, up 346% from a year earlier and up 73% on a sequential quarter-over-quarter basis, according to The Motley Fool and TradingKey. Net income landed at $28.24 billion, an increase of 1,398%. Gross margin reached 84.9%.

The growth wasn't concentrated in one product line. Micron's Core Data Center business jumped 653% year-over-year to $11.52 billion, according to figures Micron reported and The Motley Fool published. Cloud Memory revenue rose 307% to $13.77 billion. Automotive and Embedded revenue climbed 309% to $4.63 billion.

"Micron's record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era," CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said at the time, according to The Motley Fool. "We believe our multi-year strategic customer agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron's strong financial performance."

How Big a Slice of the Index

Crypto Briefing's analysis found that Micron and Nvidia together accounted for up to 40% of the entire S&P 500's earnings growth in the most recent reported quarter. A separate estimate published by CryptoRank, credited to Coinpaper's Maya Bennett, projects something narrower: that the S&P 500's technology sector overall is forecast to grow earnings 41.9% year-over-year for the current calendar quarter, but that figure falls to 20.5% if Nvidia, Micron and Alphabet are stripped out. That's a tech-sector-only estimate for a quarter that hasn't been reported yet, not a completed measurement of the whole index, so the two claims describe different things. One is what already happened across all 500 companies, the other is a forecast limited to tech stocks.

Looking further out, analysts project Micron's operating income could climb from roughly $130.4 billion in 2026 to $200.8 billion in 2027, a 54% jump, according to Crypto Briefing. That would place Micron third among all S&P 500 companies in total profit-growth contribution, trailing only Nvidia and Alphabet.

Cheap by the Market's Own Math

Despite the growth, Micron trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 9.2x, according to Crypto Briefing. The S&P 500's weighted average forward P/E sits near 20.2x. The information technology sector averages 22.8x. Micron is growing faster than nearly every company in the index while trading at less than half its own sector's typical multiple.

Wall Street has been raising targets accordingly. Citi analyst Atif Malik lifted his price target on Micron from $1,150 to $1,300 this week, according to The Motley Fool, citing stronger DRAM pricing and continued tight supply tied to AI data center buildouts. DRAM prices rose more than 60% in Micron's fiscal third quarter, and NAND prices rose more than 80%, per Malik's note. TradingKey reports Wall Street's average price target on Micron now sits at $1,515.

The Case for Caution

Not every signal points up. BigGo Finance reports Micron shares closed at $1,016.59 this past Friday, according to StatMuse data, leaving the stock roughly 20% below its 52-week high of $1,255 and up about 256% year-to-date. BigGo notes declining trading volume, which it says suggests waning investor enthusiasm, and cites a Motley Fool contributor warning that the market has priced in an overly bullish scenario with no margin for error. Memory chips have historically been a boom-and-bust business. A reversal in AI infrastructure spending or a supply glut could hit Micron harder than diversified chipmakers, since memory pricing is cyclical by nature. That's a legitimate structural risk, not a fringe concern, given how much of Micron's recent gain is tied to a single demand story: AI data centers.

Macro conditions add another layer. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told Fox News that Treasury yields reaching 5% are now competing directly with stocks for investor money as the Federal Reserve weighs its next rate move. Higher yields make richly valued growth stocks less attractive by comparison, even ones trading at a discount like Micron.

What Comes Next

Micron is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after the market closes Wednesday, Sept. 30, with an earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern the same day, according to TradingKey. Company guidance points to roughly $50 billion in revenue, plus or minus $1 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $31 plus or minus $1, and gross margin near 86%.

Wall Street's consensus, compiled by IBD and cited by TradingKey, sits above the midpoint of that guidance: $50.82 billion in revenue and $31.43 in adjusted EPS. Those are estimates, not results. If they hold, TradingKey calculates that would represent roughly 349% revenue growth and 937% EPS growth year-over-year.

The report will also be watched for guidance on the first quarter of fiscal 2027, progress qualifying Micron's HBM4 memory chips with customers, and whether DRAM supply stays as tight as it has been. Micron's own five-year stock return of 1,313% already exceeds Nvidia's 912% over the same stretch, according to BigGo Finance. Wednesday's numbers will show whether that gap keeps widening or whether the memory supercycle is starting to cool.