Merz Ties Germany's Backing for EU Budget to Ukraine Funding, FT Reports, as Berlin's Aid Tally Hits €100.9 Billion

Since Russia's full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Germany has provided or earmarked about €100.9 billion for Ukraine, according to the federal government's own written answer to a parliamentary question. Now Berlin is trying to make its European partners share the load.

Merz's budget threat

Merz has threatened to block the EU's next seven-year budget unless every member state commits to funding Ukraine in 2027 and beyond, the Financial Times reported today, Nov. 9. The paper reviewed a letter Merz sent to European Council President António Costa.

"A collective commitment that all of us, without exception, will contribute fairly to closing [Ukraine's financing] gap" is essential before further talks on financial commitments, Merz wrote, according to the FT.

Ukraine faces an extra financing shortfall of roughly €70 billion ($78 billion) in 2027. Merz also wants reliable multiyear financing from 2028 onward, including interest payments on Ukraine-related debt.

Germany has real leverage. The 2028-2034 budget needs unanimity among EU governments plus the European Parliament's consent, so Berlin can stop it by withholding agreement. Germany is the bloc's largest net contributor.

The European Commission's proposal envisages mobilizing up to €100 billion ($112 billion) for Ukraine. That is a proposal, and it remains under negotiation. Military-related support would continue through the separate European Peace Facility.

Who is not paying

Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and Bulgaria have indicated they would not take part in a new loan for Kyiv, according to reporting on the funding talks. In October, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Slovakia and Hungary would sit out further financing. He also criticized tying Ukraine aid to the EU's future budget.

That is the collision Merz is forcing. Governments that want to avoid new commitments are being told the budget cannot move unless everyone contributes.

What Germany says it has spent

The federal government's answer to a question from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) puts civilian support at more than €43.3 billion and military support at about €57.6 billion, as of June 30, 2026. Together that is about €100.9 billion.

That figure is not cash out the door. The military portion includes money earmarked for future years, so not all of it has been spent. The total also counts aid to Ukrainian citizens living in Germany.

The government also described how the money moves. Ukrainian authorities place orders with companies, Germany is not a party to the contracts, and payments go to contractors only after delivery is verified. Evaluations of veterans' assistance projects found "no significant shortcomings," the government said.

Its argument for continuing: "The Federal Government is convinced that the security costs in the event of a Russian military victory over Ukraine would significantly exceed the costs of supporting Ukraine in its current form."

The AfD asked the question and rejects the premise. Party leader Alice Weidel has said Ukraine has "already lost the war" and has demanded a "diesel deal" with Russia.

Air defense: promises and limits

On Nov. 3 in Berlin, Merz pledged more air defense and energy support. "Two things are crucial before the coming winter: air defense and the energy sector," he said.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has a "major shortage in air defense." He cited PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot, IRIS-T missiles, and a new support package for Ukraine's F-16s.

Four days later, on Nov. 7, Pistorius told Focus that Germany cannot send more Patriot systems. "Everything we provide now is something we won't be able to replace for the time being; that would create gaps in our defenses that we cannot take responsibility for. More is not possible right now," he said. He said other partners must take on more responsibility.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara had asked the E5 countries (Germany, the UK, France, Poland and Italy) in October to consider handing over 10% of their Patriot and IRIS-T interceptor stocks.

On Oct. 30, the U.S. State Department announced it had approved the potential sale of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine for about $2.1 billion, funded by Canada, Germany and Norway. Zelenskyy said deliveries could take years, while Ukraine needs the missiles this winter.

Talks start tomorrow

Working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, are scheduled for Nov. 10-11 in Abu Dhabi. Zelenskyy said he expects them to pave the way for a trilateral format at the level of heads of state and government.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the talks will cover security guarantees, which he said "can only be mutual." He ruled out European involvement, saying the format is already agreed and "is between Russia and Ukraine."

The next test of Berlin's strategy comes within days. Pistorius said the Patriot question will go to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the Ramstein format, in mid-November. Merz's budget ultimatum will show whether other capitals sign on or call his bluff.