Marvell Tells Investors It Will Hit $90 Billion in Revenue by 2031. Wall Street's Own Models Say $47 Billion.

Marvell Technology held its 2026 Investor Day in New York on Tuesday, October 6, and CEO Matt Murphy walked out having put numbers on the table that dwarf what Wall Street had been pricing in.

Murphy raised the company's fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to approximately $20 billion, up from the $18 billion guidance issued in August, and set a fiscal 2031 target range of $70 billion to $90 billion. This is the first time Marvell has ever disclosed a long-range number that far out, according to a same-day investor day analysis from Tech Times.

"We expect approximately $20 billion in total company revenue in FY28, representing about 67% year-over-year growth," Murphy told investors, according to Independent Journal Review.

A Pattern of Rising Targets

This is not the first time Marvell has moved its own goalposts upward. Independent Journal Review tracked the fiscal 2028 figure through five increases in roughly a year: near $13 billion in December 2025, about $15 billion in March 2026, roughly $16.5 billion in May, about $18 billion in late August, and now $20 billion.

Marvell closed fiscal 2026 with $8.2 billion in total revenue, including $6.1 billion from data centers, according to Yahoo Finance. The company is guiding to about $12 billion for fiscal 2027 and expects roughly $18 billion of the new $20 billion fiscal 2028 target to come from data centers, with that segment growing about 80% year over year.

Shares jumped as much as 11% intraday, touching a session high of $301.27 before closing at $287.01, up 5.8%, according to BigGo Finance. Broadcom, viewed as Marvell's larger rival in custom AI silicon, rode the news to a 3.7% gain, closing at $375.81, with BigGo noting Broadcom has guided to about $230 billion in fiscal 2028 AI revenue of its own.

The Google Warrant, By The Numbers

Much of the long-term bull case traces back to a commercial agreement Marvell signed with Google on July 29, 2026, covering custom silicon tied to Google's TPU ecosystem — AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers and near-memory compute products, according to the underlying filing cited by Tech Times.

As part of that deal, Marvell issued Google a warrant for up to roughly 59 million shares at a $206.58 strike price. The warrant vests in 240 separate tranches, one for every $500 million in qualifying custom-product purchases Google makes, running from Marvell's fiscal third quarter of 2027 through the end of fiscal 2033.

Do the math and 240 tranches times $500 million is where the widely repeated $120 billion figure comes from. That is the maximum cumulative purchase volume if Google exercises every single tranche, not a signed order or minimum commitment. Tech Times calculated the warrant's actual equity value at the $206.58 strike price at approximately $12.2 billion, a very different number than the $120 billion headline that has circulated since August.

The Motley Fool made the caveat plainly: "Google, of course, hasn't promised to buy that much. But the setup shows how big the relationship could grow." That is the fair read. Google gets warrant shares only as it actually spends money with Marvell. There's no guarantee it spends anywhere close to $120 billion by 2033.

What Wall Street Actually Modeled

Independent Journal Review reported that four analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had an average fiscal 2031 revenue estimate of $46.85 billion before Tuesday's announcement. Piper Sandler had its own estimate near $45 billion. Marvell's new $80 billion midpoint beats those numbers by tens of billions of dollars.

Clearing the low end of Marvell's range, $70 billion, requires revenue to compound at roughly 54% annually for five straight years. The top end, $90 billion, implies closer to 61% annual growth. Marvell grew 42% in fiscal 2026, the fastest pace in its recent history. Management is now promising to beat its own best year, every year, for half a decade.

Marvell's defenders have a real argument. The company's fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue rose 37% year over year to $2.739 billion, with data-center revenue up 46% to $2.17 billion, and growth has now accelerated for two consecutive quarters, according to The Motley Fool. Murphy has also raised the fiscal 2029 custom-chip target to more than $12 billion, up from a prior $10 billion floor, and projects a $400 billion total addressable market by 2030. That's more than quadruple the $94 billion figure the company cited for 2028 just two years ago, per BigGo Finance.

Still, a stock that started 2026 near $85 and has since tripled is now being asked to justify a forecast that outruns independent analyst models by nearly double. The next real test comes when Marvell reports fiscal third-quarter 2027 results, the first quarter in which Google's purchase-tied warrant tranches begin vesting under the deal's terms. That's the point where the $120 billion headline number either starts turning into actual, verifiable purchase orders, or doesn't.