Since the June 2 primaries concluded Tuesday night, the confirmed matchups and outstanding results across six states are shaping what November looks like.

Iowa: The Race That Actually Matters for Senate Control

The Iowa Senate race is now set. State Rep. Josh Turek, a former wheelchair basketball Paralympian and establishment-backed Democrat, defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary, according to both Politico and the NY Post. He'll face GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who easily beat former state Sen. Jim Carlin.

Turek's win was a direct referendum on which direction Democrats want to go — and the moderate lane won. Wahls had gone viral in 2011 championing LGBTQ causes and ran explicitly against the party establishment, vowing to oppose Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer if elected, per the NY Post. Turek ran as a team player — his framing was "I'm running against Ashley Hinson and Trump, not Schumer" — and the DSCC backed him.

Hinson is still the favorite. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Iowa since Barack Obama's 2012 presidential reelection. Per the NY Post, DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand lists Iowa as a "longer-shot" pickup — behind North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska as the party's primary targets. But Turek has polled competitively in general election matchups, and the seat is open with retiring Sen. Joni Ernst not on the ballot.

This is a race worth watching. Not a likely Democratic pickup. But not a guaranteed Republican hold either.

California: Nobody Knows Yet

California's results will take days or weeks to finalize, according to The Hill. Mail-in ballots are valid as long as they're postmarked by Election Day. California has 39 million people. This is how the state runs elections.

What we do know: The governor's race effectively narrowed to a three-way contest between Democrat Xavier Becerra, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton, per NBC News. Steyer has dumped more than $215 million of his own money into the race. Becerra surged after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out following sexual misconduct allegations.

Also in the field: former Rep. Katie Porter, former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent Tony Thurmond, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. California's top-two primary system means any party could get shut out of November. Fox News noted the question is whether Hilton or Bianco — the two Republicans — advance, or whether two Democrats lock up both spots.

The LA mayoral race is equally unsettled. Fox News reported incumbent Mayor Karen Bass faces challenges from progressive city councilmember Nithya Raman and Republican reality TV figure Spencer Pratt, who has gained real momentum. Bass has been under fire for her handling of the city's wildfire emergency response and homeless crisis. Final results there are also pending.

New Mexico: Deb Haaland Wins

Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico, according to The Hill. Haaland would be a significant figure in the general — but New Mexico tilts reliably Democratic, so this race isn't a major November battleground.

Montana and the Down-Ballot Picture

Montana's open House seat in the 1st Congressional District — vacated by retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke — is on Democrats' radar, per The Hill. The Senate race there will see Republican Kurt Alme advance from the primary. Montana is GOP-leaning territory overall.

Iowa Down-Ballot: Three More Matchups Set

Beyond the Senate race, Iowa locked in several House rematches. Per The Hill, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks will face Democrat Christina Bohannan again in Iowa's 1st District — they've run against each other before. GOP Rep. Zach Nunn will face state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott in Iowa's 3rd District. Both seats are competitive.

In Iowa's 4th District — vacated by Feenstra running for governor — Fox News spotlighted 24-year-old Joe Mitchell, a Gen Z Republican who was the youngest person ever elected to the Iowa legislature and previously worked at Trump's HUD and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Mitchell received endorsements from House Speaker Pat Grassley and President Trump. That seat is solidly Republican.

What the Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets like NBC News are framing Turek's Iowa primary win as evidence of Democratic momentum. Winning a primary in a state your party hasn't won statewide in 14 years means clearing the first hurdle, not the finish line.

Right-leaning coverage, including Fox News, is treating California's delayed results as inherently suspicious. California's mail-in ballot system is its legal process. Complaining about it doesn't make it fraud.

The Democratic Party's moderate-versus-progressive civil war produced a clear moderate winner in Iowa, and that result matters for the party's November strategy.

The Bottom Line

Senate control in 2026 runs through a handful of genuinely competitive states. Iowa is one of them — low probability, but real. If Turek can close the gap in a state Trump carried comfortably, it signals something about the broader environment. If he can't, the Senate map stays brutal for Democrats.

California's governor race determines who runs the largest state in the country. With Newsom gone, whoever wins in November inherits a fiscal disaster and a homeless crisis that no amount of progressive rhetoric has fixed. The voters who matter most there aren't ideological — they're exhausted.

Watch the California count over the next two weeks. And watch Iowa closely in October. Those are the two races that tell you the most about where the country actually is.