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Iowa and New Mexico Primaries Produce Clear Winners: Hinson, Lahn, and Haaland Head to November

Since our coverage of the June 2 primaries established Hilton vs. Becerra for California governor and Feenstra's concession in Iowa, the remaining puzzle pieces have snapped into place — and a few new storylines demand attention.
Hinson Wins Iowa Senate Primary by a Landslide
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) won the Republican primary for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat — the one being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst — by a decisive margin. Hinson pulled 73.9% of the vote (51,277 votes) against challenger Jim Carlin's 26.1% (18,107 votes), according to the Associated Press, which called the race at 9:22 p.m. on election night.
Her general election opponent will be state Rep. Josh Turek (D), according to Decision Desk HQ as reported by The Hill. Turek faces long odds in a state that hasn't elected a statewide Democrat in a top-ticket race since Barack Obama in 2012. Americans for Prosperity Action publicly backed Hinson post-victory.
Lahn vs. Sand: Iowa's Governor Race Gets Interesting
The Trump endorsement loss we covered yesterday is now the confirmed matchup. Businessman Zach Lahn — backed by Turning Point Action and endorsed by former Rep. Steve King — defeated four opponents including Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra, according to Decision Desk HQ via The Hill.
Lahn now faces Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in November. Sand is the only statewide elected Democrat in Iowa and has built a reputation for criticizing both parties, positioning himself as a genuine challenger despite the state's Republican lean.
Feenstra received his Trump endorsement after early voting had already begun — Trump's late entry diluted the endorsement's impact. Lahn's MAHA-adjacent coalition and immigration-hawk positioning drove grassroots turnout, reflecting the Republican base's ideological shift.
Iowa's 1st District: A Rematch Already Set
GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan are projected to face off again in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ as reported by The Hill. These two ran an extremely close race in 2024. Expect another expensive, grinding battle in November.
Haaland Wins New Mexico Democratic Primary for Governor
Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary in New Mexico's governor race, according to Decision Desk HQ as reported by The Hill. She would succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
Haaland brings name recognition and a historic profile — she was the first Native American Cabinet secretary. New Mexico leans Democratic, making her the frontrunner in November. Her Interior Department tenure drew criticism over energy permitting delays, which Republicans are likely to emphasize.
California: Still Counting, Still Unsettled
California's mail-in ballot system means results can trickle in for days or weeks after Election Day — ballots postmarked by June 2 are valid. Several California races remain officially unresolved.
The governor's race has Hilton vs. Becerra effectively locked in, as established in our earlier coverage. But a few sub-stories deserve attention:
The Swalwell Disaster. Even after former Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for governor following rape and sexual assault allegations — which he denied while admitting to extramarital affairs — more than 15,000 Californians still voted for him, according to the NY Post citing California Secretary of State data. That's 0.4% of the vote with 42% of precincts partially reporting. Swalwell, now listed as treasurer of his own defunct campaign, retains control of roughly $4 million in leftover campaign funds, much of which has gone to legal fees.
The Pelosi Seat. State Sen. Scott Wiener dominated early returns in San Francisco's race to replace retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, pulling 43.4% of the first batch counted, according to the NY Post. Pelosi's handpicked successor, Connie Chan, sat at 28.5%. Tech millionaire Saikat Chakrabarti — who burned $10 million of his own money — was at 13.5%. Chakrabarti notably did NOT receive an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez despite his ties to her. Wiener and Chan are expected to advance as the top two.
Sacramento's Flag-Turning Candidate. Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang, who has repeatedly turned her back on the U.S. flag and refused to recite the Pledge of Allegiance — including at a Veterans Day ceremony — was trailing incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui in early returns, per the NY Post. Matsui led with 32.6%, Vang was second at 25.7%, and Republican Zachariah Wooden was close behind at 22.6%. All three are within striking distance for the second advancement spot.
LA Mayor: Still No Answer. Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, and Nithya Raman remain in a multi-week counting situation. Veteran political consultant Rick Taylor told The California Post it could take "10 to 14 days" to get a real picture. Bass needs 50%+ to avoid a runoff; that appears unlikely. Pratt says he's "very confident" he advances.
Iowa now has its full November lineup: Hinson for Senate, Lahn for governor, and Miller-Meeks defending her House seat. New Mexico has Haaland. California is still sorting itself out, which is what California does. The Iowa governorship between Lahn and Rob Sand shapes up as the most competitive race, with Lahn running on immigration hardline and MAHA politics in a state Trump won easily.